Box Office Results and Analysis for Jan. 7-9, 2011

This is the first out of a series of posts about the US Box Office weekend. I will post my prediction and the actual results to see if I have what it takes to become a Box-office analyst.

1.) True Grit – Finally, a good movie trumps a supposedly awful one on their 3rd week! True Grit is now the Coen Brothers’ highest grossing movie and first $100M film next to There Will Be Blood’s $74M take

My Prediction: Rank 1 – $16.7M, Actual Result: $15M, Total Cume: $110M, Week 3

2.) Little Fockers – The unnecessary but star-studded sequel has managed to drop a little smaller than expected. But what is there to enjoy when you’re $80M short of the previous movie’s pace years ago plus inflation?

My Prediction: Rank 2 – $12.5M, Actual Result: $13.8M, Total Cume: $123M, Week 3

3.) Season of The Witch – With a 2% rating on RottenTomatoes, who would want to watch this? This feels like Solomon Kane all over again. Hack n’ Slash, without actually caring who’s being killed. Congratulations, Nicolas Cage, you’re richer!

My Prediction: Rank 3 – $10M, Actual Result: $10.7M, Total Cume: $10.7M, Week 1

4) Tron Legacy – My fourth favorite film of 2010 has mustered enough money to possibly greenlight a sequel execs are now calling “Tron: Uprising”. Question is, will Jeff Bridges return?

My Prediction: Rank 4 – $9M, Actual Result: $9.8M, Total Cume: $148M, Week 4

5.) Black Swan – The Black horse of the weekend. Not only did Black Swan manage to sneak to the top 10, it’s at number 5! Legs must have been good for this one, figuratively and literally. Imma watch this soon.

My Prediction: Unranked, Actual Result: $8.3M, Total Cume: $61.4M, Week 6

6.) Country Strong – Expanding to 1400 theaters, this movie was trashed by critics but it had too big stars to not show it in theaters. Sources say majority of the viewers were female, may because of Gwyneth.

My Prediction: Rank 5 – $7.5M, Actual Result: $7.3M, Total Cume: $7.4, Week 2

7.) The Fighter – Philippine marketing ties this movie with Manny Pacquiao. Good move, as I was buying Tron Tickets lots of people seem to check out the TV trailer near the ticket counter. This movie is an Oscar Contender.

My Prediction: Rank 8 – $6.2M, Actual Result: $7M, Total Cume: $57.8M, Week 5

Total Variance: $17M – Not Bad!

Strange, this weekend turned out to be one of the best predictions I’ve made in Box office Mojo’s Derby. I recommend movie lovers to join the game too! It’s quite fun especially for Data/Statistic lovers.


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