Box Office Predictions for Feb. 18-20, 2011

Woohoo! It’s actually nice to see a weekend that could actually out-gross last year’s tally. Last year’s post-Valentine’s total was $122M. Only Shutter Island debuted at the time, and more than half of the holdover movies crashed by more than 50%. Here’s hoping that three movies (all under 50% at Rottentomatoes) will be able to propel the film industry.
Here’s the Lucky 7! (P.S. I’ll be posting my predictions for the 3-day and 4-day weekend)

Alex Pettyfer in I Am Number Four


1.) I Am Number Four – $25.5M (3-Day)/ $30.0M (4-Day)

This teen flick stars Alex Pettyfer, Diana Agron, Timothy Olyphant and Teresa Palmer and directed by D.J. Caruso. They may not seem like A-listers, but suffice to say they are RISING stars. I’m matching this with Percy Jackson’s success, since that movie also premiered at the same time last year. However, this could go waaaaaaay lower than what I expect.

2.) Unknown – $21.2M (3-Day)/ $25.0M (4-Day)

I was supposed to peg this lower, but merely a few seconds after I tried editing my entry at boxofficemojo, the site said the game was now closed for the week. I decided to stick to my previous bet of $25M for the 4-day weekend. 2 Years ago, Liam Neeson opened another movie at the same week, same genre and almost the same poster. I don’t think it’ll bomb, but I don’t think it’ll grab the number 1 spot either. Plus, it’s currently only 47% Fresh at RT (as compared to Taken’s 52%)

3.) Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son – $17.8M (3-Day)/ $21.0M (4-Day)

Oh, brother! The third firm for this deteriorating franchise should entice enough audiences to retain about 2/3 of it’s original audience. It’s been quite a while since I’ve seen Martin Lawrence, so I don’t know if this series is losing is touch or not.

4.) Just Go With It – $17M (3-Day)/ $20M (4-Day)

No competition in the romance genre equals more money for this movie. This respectable drop should be enough to make it Sandler and Aniston’s nth $100M+ movie.

5.) Gnomeo and Juliet – $15.9M (3-Day)/ $18.7M (4-Day)

This is one of the highest-grossing low-marketed animated movie in a while. I’m actually surprised to see it take more than $25M last week, and I’m even more shocked since I didn’t expect my prediction to be just below $16M, which is about the total gross of Alpha and Omega!

6.) Justin Bieber: Never Say Never – $11.1M (3-Day)/ $13.0M (4-Day)

And the award for biggest loser goes to… Justin Bieber! After soaring to the number two spot, he’s expected to drop BIG this weekend. But don’t blame the movie, it’s only because audiences tend to flock concert movies on the first week, so expect this week’s viewers to be re-watchers, curious people or those who are just embarrassed to catch it in week 1.

7.) The King’s Speech – $5.5M (3-Day)/ $6.5M (4-Day)

The top 6 films are within $14M from each other, so don’t blame me if I don’t get even a single spot correct this week. The King’s Speech on the other hand will crack $100M domestically, being the 29th movie released in 2010 to do so and tying 2009’s record. The Black Swan just made it yesterday.

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