Box Office Results Feb. 18-20, 2011 [updated]

Update #1: It seems that my prediction was correct. I am Number Four slipped to third place as Gnomeo and Juliet dominated on Monday and moved to second for the 4-day weekend.

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Although this weekend beat last year’s, three new movies underperformed. Plus, they destroyed my predictions, damn! The whole weekend was a mess, as the positions are still interchangeable if you count Monday’s gross. To avoid the confusion, I’ll just follow the 3-day predictions, but I’ll still give you the Monday numbers by tomorrow, and give you the list of the top 7 for the 4-day President’s weekend. Here’s the lucky 7!

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 0 weeks in a row
Number of Times I nailed the Top 7: 0

 

Liam Neeson in Unknown

1.) Unknown – Here we go. First off, this movie sneaked into the top spot. It was a bit surprising, but not as much as it grossed a little lower than Neeson’s last movie, TAKEN, even though they have similar attributes. It did perform better than I expected though. Oh well, at least five other movies grossed more than $13M each.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $21.2M (3-Day)/ $25.0M (4-Day)

Actual Gross: $21.8M (3-Day)/ $25.6M (4-Day)

Total Gross: $25.6M

2.) I Am Number Four – Disappointing numbers for this movie. It tried to gain similar numbers as Percy Jackson, tried to match the breakout success of Twilight, and showcased 3 young and upcoming stars. But the movie became uncool for the men and not romantic enough for the women. Even though it was released in 230 IMAX theaters, this movie still didn’t crack $20M. What’s worse, the 3rd and 4th top movie could actually out-gross this film by Monday! Ouch!

Update: I Am Number Four finished third if we include Monday showings.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $25.5M (3-Day)/ $30M (4-Day)

Actual Gross: $19.5M/ $22.6M (4-Day)

Total Gross: $22.6M

3.) Gnomeo And Juliet – This was the best news for the weekend. I expected this film to hold well, but not by this much. The animated film fell by only 23%, a good percentage considering that expectations weren’t too high, and it wasn’t marketed that much. This movie could still have a shot for $100M domestic, and it could even be the first one to do so this year if The Green Hornet can’t do it.

Update: Gnomeo and Juliet rose to number 2 because of first place showings on Monday.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $15.9M (3-Day)/ $18.7M (4-Day)

Actual Gross: $19.4M (3-Day)/ $24.8M (4-Day)

Total Gross: $55.8M

4.) Just Go With It – Surprisingly, this unequivocally panned movie managed to hold well this weekend even if it’s post-Valentines already. It may not be performing as good as Sandler’s previous movies, but it still brings out the crowd. Plus, I got this movie correct!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $17M (3-Day)/ $20M (4-Day)

Actual Gross: $18.2M (3-Day)/ $21.7M (4-Day)

Total Gross: $64.2M

5.) Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son – The first movie earned $27M in its 1st week, the second grabbed $24M, so it is expected that this Martin Lawrence movie will also fade. I guess people are starting to get tired of the big momma.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $17.8M (3-Day)/ $21.0M (4-Day)

Actual Gross: $17M (3-Day)/ $19M (4-Day)

Total Gross: $19M

6.) Justin Bieber: Never Say Never – All right Bieber! I thought this would crash and burn big time, but I guess people still had enough enthusiasm to catch a second viewing! It only dropped 54%. Normally, that’s big, but considering that this is a concert movie, it actually did well. Plus, would you complain if you’ve grossed a lot of money from a $13M budget? I don’t think so.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $11.1M (3-Day)/ $13M (4-Day)

Actual Gross: $13.6M (3-Day)/ $16.5M (4-Day)

Total Gross: $64.2M

7.) The King’s Speech – rounding up the top 7 is none other than the Oscar-driven The King’s Speech, which once again posted the smallest drop among nationwide films, a fantastic 9%! This movie becomes the 5th Best Picture nominee to earn more than $100M domestically. Now that’s what you call ‘a good move’ by audiences.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $5.5M (3-Day)/ $6.5M (4-Day)

Actual Gross: $6.6M (3-Day)/ $7.9M (4-Day)

Total Gross: $104.6M

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