Box Office Predictions for Feb. 25-27, 2011

We’re about 1/6 into the year and we have yet to see a $40M weekend for a major Hollywood film. Last year, Avatar dominated the first 5 weeks while Valentine’s Day exploited it’s release date on its way to a $50M+ showing. This year’s grosses are constantly declining, giving studios a sign that it’s about damn time they make more quality films.

For this week, we have six films earning more than $10M, but not a single one will crack $20M, that would be reserved for March premieres. Here are my predictions.

Last Week’s World Box-Office Mojo Derby Rank: 57th

Hall Pass

1.) Hall Pass – $17.0M – Let’s analyze the movie poster for a while. Good news is that Owen Wilson is a huge draw. The bad news is, well, pretty much everything else. The “from the directors of There’s Something About Mary” ad is kind of irrelevant because it dates back to the early 90’s, unless they intended the flick to be seen by the same demographic as that movie. The lady at the bottom of the poster signifies the movie as a raunchy R-rated movie, while Jason Sudeikis is pretty much unknown. I don’t think this movie will bomb, but after my devastating prediction for #1 last week, I won’t be making any bullish expectations anytime soon.

2.) Gnomeo And Juliet – $14.3M – Last week, it was $40K away from claiming the #1 spot from Unknown, which would have been an upset. Good news for Disney, though, they’ve raked a lot of cash with this average film, and is set to reach $100M unless March arrives early with Rio, Mars Needs Moms and Rango.

3.) Drive Angry 3D – $14.0M – Nicolas Cage + Amber Heard + Sex + 3D, this movie is beyond weird. I would’ve never expected this movie. I mean, the Nic and Amber pairing is out of this world (and she’s out of his league), however, less than a couple of million interested people will catch this. If I watch this, it would be because Amber’s here. Oh, and Nic of course, regardless of how many movies he’s been in.

4.) Unknown – $13.9M – Last week’s number one movie is dethroned this week. However, it appears that I could also fail all top seven positions as I’m predicting the top 2 to 4 movies to be within 400K from each other. 2 years ago, Taken dropped only 8% in its second weekend, this one won’t, but I don’t have a clear explanation as to why. I just think it’s less interesting.

5.) Just Go With It – $11.2M – Now that it only went down by 40% last week, this movie is leaning towards Grown Ups rather than Funny People in terms of box office success. Now, let’s predict who’ll be the first to crack $100M this week, this movie, Gnomeo, or The Green Hornet (which is only $5M away from that mark, although it’s losing traction fast)?

6.) I Am Number Four – $10.3M – Disappointing numbers for I Am Number Four. Not only will it end it’s run below $75M, it will also be forgotten as early as summer. Too bad, I wanted the three main cast members to flourish even more. Tsk Tsk.

7.) Big Momma’s: Like Father, Like Son – $8.1M Rounding up the top 7 is Big Momma, which just edges out Oscar favorite The King’s Speech. Big Momma will end up being the lowest grossing movie in the deteriorating franchise. Therefore, don’t expect Big Momma to return any time soon.

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