Box Office Results March 4-6, 2011

Other than Miami Heat losing four straight games, nothing else is odd this week. I got the number one spot right again, but I ended up being 3 of 7 in my predictions, thanks a lot, The King’s Speech!

Anyway, 2011 grosses continue to pale in comparison with last year’s. Alice help launch a $180M weekend the same time last year, and this weekend Hollywood should be pleased if the top 12 could even hit $130M. That’s a 30% drop! Ouch!

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 2 weeks in a row
Number of Times I nailed the Top 7: 0

1.) Rango – Although it fell short of my $50M prediction, Rango is still a decent success considering it wasn’t released in 3D (Thank God!). Audiences reactions were mixed, some complaining that it wasn’t appropriate for the kids and some saying it lacked pop culture references. But I think that’s exactly what we need right now. Something that can prove that you don’t need any of that to earn decent money. It may not be a lot, but at least originality delivers. Now, let’s see if it has good legs enough to break even with its $130M budget.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $50.0M

Actual Gross: $38.0M

Total Gross: $38.0M

2.) The Adjustment Bureau – Matt Damon and Emily Blunt successfully opens well. If this movie has enough firepower, it could outgross Damon’s last four movies. This is actually his highest grossing first weekend for a non-Bourne movie. Cool, eh?

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $23.5M

Actual Gross: $20.9M

Total Gross: $20.9M

3.) Beastly – A strong opening for Alex Pettyfer and Vannessa Hudgens. This adaptation of Beauty and The Beast premiered in less than 3000 theaters. Will Pettyfer be a big star in the making? Maybe.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $9.0M

Actual Gross: $10.1M

Total Gross: $10.1M

4.) Hall Pass – I was wrong. I guess not all low-opening comedies drop big in their second weekend after all. Well, consider this a consolation. It hasn’t even crossed $30M, and that’s the opening weekend of Just Go With It.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $7.3M

Actual Gross: $9.0M

Total Gross: $27.0M

5.) Gnomeo And Juliet – What did I tell ya? For three weeks, it posted respectable declines, but when Rango came in, it crashed 48%. I guess it won’t make $100M after all. Sigh.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $8.0M

Actual Gross: $6.9M

Total Gross: $83.6M

6.) Unknown – How come most websites have nothing to say about this movie? I don’t either, so let’s just pass.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $7.2M

Actual Gross: $6.6M

Total Gross: $53.1M

7.) The King’s Speech – I expected a big gain for this, now thanks to the Best Picture Winner my predictions got all messed up. Still, an 11% drop is respectable, but it never should have if it wasn’t for Charlie Sheen’s press coverage stealing the thunder.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $10.0M

Actual Gross: $6.5M

Total Gross: $123.8M


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