Box Office Results March 18-20, 2011

I have to make this quick since I still have 6 exams in the next 7 days. It appears that my streak of predicting number one films ends prematurely at 3. I don’t have any problems about it since it was pretty tough to determine the winner this week. Overall box-office was down 10% from the same weekend last year, but isn’t it always? 2011 now trails 2010’s pace by 20%, but we’re ahead by 2007’s by 1%. Great.

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed The Top 7: 0

1.) LIMITLESS – Success! Bradley Cooper has finally opened his first major film better than expected. Although no one hit $20M this weekend, expect him to exceed that the next time we see him

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $16.7M

Actual Gross: $19.0M

Total Gross: $19.0M

2.) Rango – Well, look at that! Rango stays at the number 2 spot despite heavy competition against three new movies. Good thing this film found a niche. I guess we can count on some more animated films for non-kids in the future. That saturday matinee kiddie bump helped them a lot. Plus, it’s poised to become the first $100M grosser for the year!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $14.3M

Actual Gross: $15.3M

Total Gross: $92.6M

3.) Battle: Los Angeles – My number one pick for the week dropped by 59%. I guess people just didn’t like this film. That $70M budget + Marketing fees is gonna hurt Columbia.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $18.0M

Actual Gross: $14.6M

Total Gross: $60.6M

4.) THE LINCOLN LAWYER – I heard Groupon was selling tickets for $6, even as much as $1 for 1 ticket when you’re a new user and you bought three. That’s what I call a bargain! (And desperation). Note: Avg ticket for movies cost $8-$11

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $12.0M

Actual Gross: $13.4M

Total Gross: $13.4M

5.) PAUL – This film ended up being last place among new nationwide releases. It’s the biggest opening for a Simon Pegg/Nick Frost movie in the US, but only because it had 2400 more theaters than Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead. It’s doing VERY well at the UK box office, though.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $15.0M

Actual Gross: $13.1M

Total Gross: $13.1M

6.) Red Riding Hood – What? This only bled 49%? I expected a huge drop-off from its opening weekend. I still don’t like Amanda Seyfried, there isn’t really any significant reason why, I just think she’s in too many movies.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $6.6M

Actual Gross: $7.2M

Total Gross: $25.9M

7.) The Adjustment Bureau – Woohoo! My reputation is still intact as I got the number 6 and 7 spots right. Whew! I almost blew the whole top seven. Anyway, next week we’ll have Sucker Punch and Diary of A Wimpy Kid 2. The latter will sure find decent success, but Sucker Punch is a tough draw. It could open at $30-$50M, but it could also bomb at $10-$20M. We’ll see what happens next week.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $6.4M

Actual Gross: $5.9M

Total Gross: $48.8M

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