Box Office Results April 1-3, 2011 [2nd update]

No surprise here. The movie predicted to be at the number 1 this week posted strong numbers for the week, and it even exceeded my expectations. One movie didn’t fare too well though, while a panned holdover dropped like a bomb. Box-office totals were about 30% lower than the same weekend last year, which is another ouchie for 2011.

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 1 Week in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 0


1.) HOP – This movie starring Russell Brand exceeded expectations with a strong $11.4M opening day and a big kiddie-bump on Saturday. It’s now leaning more on the success of both Alvin and The Chipmunks movies than G-Force. I just hope there’s enough room for Rio to bloom late this month, considering this movie will also be a good pick for Easter.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $30.0M

Actual Gross: $37.5M

Total Gross: $37.5M

2.) SOURCE CODE – Jake Gyllenhall still can’t open a major film by himself (Prince of Persia’s disappointing $25M start doesn’t count), as Source Code starring  Michelle Monaghan opened less that what Hollywood expected. This is awful, as the movie had one of the best ratings so far this year on Rotten Tomatoes (89%. The only major blockbuster with a higher rating is Hanna.)

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $20.0M

Actual Gross: $14.8M

Total Gross: $14.8M

3.) INSIDIOUS – Pretty solid week for opening movies so far. This independent film had strong numbers this week as I correctly predicted. It seems there were a lot of people hungry for horror. The only upcoming movie for the genre this week would be Scream 4.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $11.0M

Actual Gross: $13.2M

Total Gross: $13.2M

4.) Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2: Rodrick Rules – Last week’s number one film fell big just like I predicted. Well, this is a great week for me, eh? I just wished that this movie moved to 3rd place so that I could still have a shot on nailing the top 7 correctly for the first time.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $11.5M

Actual Gross: $10.0M

Total Gross: $38.2M

5.) Limitless – 4 for 5! Limitless may have hurt Source Code more than Source Code hurt it. I guess people want more of Bradley Cooper than Jake Gyllenhall.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $10.3M

Actual Gross: $9.3M

Total Gross: $55.5M

6.) The Lincoln Lawyer – This movie is still also doing quite well. It even pushed a movie from a disappointing 2nd in its first weekend to a horrible 7th place second.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $7.9M

Actual Gross: $6.8M

Total Gross: $39.4M

7.) Sucker Punch – And the biggest loser this week is Zack Snyder’s wet dream! Sucker Punch crashed 67%. That’s even worse than Legend of The Guardians, 300, but better in comparison to Watchmen. But Watchmen reached $100M, Sucker Punch won’t even reach $50.0M, and I can assure you that.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $9.0M

Actual Gross: $6.0M

Total Gross: $29.8M

Total Score: 3 out of 7, with a variance of $3.07142M per prediction.


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