Box Office Results April 8-10, 2011 (final update)

[update: Hanna overtakes Arthur for number 2! I only get 1 of 7]

Overall Box-office was down about 10% from the same weekend last year (when will the drought end? Last year, 3 movies made $24M and above). Nevertheless, 5 movies performed better than expected this week, while 2 movies opening today had abysmal results.

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 0

1. Hop – This movie becomes the first film to stay at the number 1 spot for 2 consecutive weeks. Last time that happened was when Little Fockers dominated over the Christmas Break. Still, at a budget of $63M, Illumination Entertainment has scored another home run after their smash hit, Despicable Me.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $23.5M

Actual Gross: $21.3M

Total Gross: $68.1M

2. HANNA – The best news of the weekend, this action film starring Saoirse Ronan actually caught attention of moviegoers this weekend, easily exceeding studio’s expectations. Many doubt the ability of a female actress (except Angelina Jolie) to perform well for an action movie. Well, I guess Hanna has proved them wrong.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $9.4M

Actual Gross: $12.4M

Total Gross: $12.4M

3. ARTHUR – At a distant third place is Arthur, which is only the start of my huge errors this weekend. This movie underperformed, some saying it actually bombed considering rival studios claim that this had a budget of $80M, it’s even lower than Hollywood’s low expectations of $18M opening. Even though Russell Brand has two of the top 3 movies for the week, I can’t say he’s too pleased about it.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $16.0M

Actual Gross: $12.2M

Total Gross: $12.2M

4. SOUL SURFER – Probably the most shocking news this week is this religious-oriented movie which opened strongly. Deadline.com thinks that the movie probably benefited from the help of the Christian Churches who recommended this movie to families. Thanks a lot, now you ruined my list! 🙂

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $9.0M

Actual Gross: $10.6M

Total Gross: $10.6M

5. Insidious – Another over-performer this week is this one. Considering it’s a horror movie I would have expected this to drop sharply in its second weekend but not as big as usual since it’s the only major horror movie out this week. Instead, it posted an out-of-this-world 27% drop, something maybe only 1% of all horror movies could do (Or simply, it only occurs once in a blue moon).

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $6.4M

Actual Gross: $9.3M

Total Gross: $27.0M

6. YOUR HIGHNESS – So, what is the reason why I’ll only get 2 movies placed correctly this week? Well, it’s because Your Highness, starring the still-hot James Franco, Natalie Portman and stars Danny McBride and Zooey Deschanel totally bombed this week. This movie had 4 big actors but I guess people didn’t want to risk watching this after seeing the trailers. Heck, even Portman’s last movie, No Strings Attached, had better showings in its premiere.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $15.5M

Actual Gross: $9.4M

Total Gross: $9.4M

7. Source Code – I may have underestimated Source Code this week. I said last week that it won’t bear the same success as Bradley Cooper’s Limitless. Well, it appears that I was wrong. I guess word-of-mouth really helped this film as it only dropped 39%, way better than average movies in its second week. (For reference, movies usually drop by 50% in its second weekend)

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $7.7M

Actual Gross: $8.7M

Total Gross: $28.6M

Total Score: 1 out of 7, with a variance of $3.085714286M per prediction.


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