Box Office Predictions For April 15-17, 2011 + What the hell happened last year? (new section)

Good news movie lovers! We may have our first ever BIG weekend of the year! This could be the first weekend that the top two opening movies both premiere with $40M or more since, well, last year. And guess what? Both movies are actually being recommended by critics!

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 77 (up 77 spots from last week) with an 82.558% Accuracy (up 4.216%)

 

Jessie Eisenberg in Rio

1.) RIO – $45.0M – I watched this last week, and it was actually a pretty good, colorful movie that features the great city of Rio. Rio is the first major animated movie out this year, which will translate to a good opening. Plus, don’t forget that the cash-grabbing 3D gimmick will also help this one. This film had an explosive run in its overseas debut, so I guess it will be the same for the states (Latinos will also have a huge factor)

 

Scream 4

2.) SCREAM 4 – $40.5M – This will probably have the same success as Scary Movie 4, and even though it’s a sequel to a movie released more than 10 years ago, horror fans are dying to watch a decent movie anyway, so I guess everyone’s gonna want to watch this to blow off some steam. This will take the number 1 spot on Friday, but it will be overtaken by Rio when the kids show up on Saturday. Never underestimate kids.

3.) Hop – $11.8M – Easter’s one week away, so expect a small bump next week even if this movie drops to third place this week. Hop has had a good run so far, so I guess $100M is a given. Congratulations!

4.) Hanna – $7.6M – Everyone can catch a movie this week. There’s horror, animation, comedy, action, inspirational, r-rated. Hanna is actually at the number 1 spot since Monday, so I guess curious people would want to see this movie this week.

5.) Soul Surfer – $6.3M – On the other hand, this one had an A+ Cinemascore but fell to 7th place over the weekday. Was this movie front-loaded, or did parents just want to catch this movie with the kids over the weekend?

6.) Arthur – $6.2M – At a close 6th place is Arthur, which is saved by Your Highness and will end up being the 2nd most not recommended movie of the week. Too bad, Russell Brand.

7.) Insidious – $5.4M – Props to Insidious for dropping by only 30% in its second weekend. Not a lot of horror movies could do that. Unfortunately, people will prefer to watch Scream 4 that this movie. So I guess a bigger drop this week would be inevitable.

 

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED LAST YEAR? (New Section!)

Last year, Kick Ass stole the number one spot from How To Train Your Dragon by counting its midnight opening grosses. Kick Ass edged HTTYD $19.8M vs $19.6M. Had they not done that, HTTYD could have had its second #1 in 4 weeks! (which they will eventually achieve next week)

Meanwhile, Date Night, Death at a Funeral, and Clash of The Titans had a photo-finish battle for third. The movies earned $16.7M, $16.2M, and $15.4M respectively.

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