Box Office Predictions for April 22-24, 2011

First off, before I say anything else, I just want to celebrate my perfect prediction last week! Yahoo! Since I’m getting better, I hope to improve even more so I could be as great as the experts so that more people would rely to me more. It’s definitely great to have lots of people view my opinions. So thank you for sticking around!

This may be the easiest weekend of the year to win the week against last year since no big movie debuted at the same time frame last year (Top 12 had an $89M total). You’ll find out about it later at the bottom part of this entry. Let’s move on to my predictions for the week. My pick for number 1 could shock you, but it’s not at all surprising if you ask the Americans.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 205 (down 128 spots from last week) with an 78.461% Accuracy (down 4.097%)

Madea's Big Happy Family

1.) MADEA’S BIG HAPPY FAMILY – $35.0M – Surprised? Don’t be. This may not be famous outside of the United States, but as long as Tyler Perry adds “Madea” on a movie title, the film is a guaranteed hit. This is his 5th movie as the titular “Madea” character, and his last Madea titled movie has earned more than $40M in its opening weekend about two years ago. So I guess some people must be craving for more of Perry’s fat suit.

2.) Rio – $23.5M – This is a long shot to repeat number 1, as we’re nearing Easter and this movie has to share the family crowd with Hop and African Cats. Still, a $20M+ second weekend ain’t bad for an animated movie. This could even challenge Rango for this year’s number 1 before summer starts and their dreams shatter.

3.) WATER FOR ELEPHANTS – $18.6M – I’m not sure if this collaboration between Witherspoon and R.Patz will become a hit. Pattinson tried 2 years ago with Remember Me and failed. Still, this looks like it has a shot since he is joined by a veteran actress and the whole story seems promising. I just hope Pattinson’s fans won’t gush about Reese being a cougar. I’ll catch this one next week, unless Hanna arrives and changes my mind.

4.) Hop – $9.1M – Hop has been pretty consistent all throughout April, and it looks like it finally got what it wanted. This film could receive a big bump since it’s Easter and the movie IS about an Easter Bunny. I made a mistake by being bullish about The King’s Speech when it won big at the Oscars, but it won’t be the same this time. I’m giving Hop a lowly single-digit drop this week.

5.) Scream 4 – $9.0M – There weren’t a lot of people raving to catch this movie last week, so I guess the fire has been doused around this film. Expect a traditional big drop for this horror film. Although I’m quite surprised that Insidious is performing well and is having a pretty steady run so far. Stop the sequels!

African Cats

6.) AFRICAN CATS – $6.4M – Once again Disney releases a documentary about animals. This one’s hoping to have the same success as its previous partners, Oceans ($6.1M) and Earth. What’s next, Birds?

7.) Soul Surfer – $4.8M – This movie will edge out Hanna and Insidious by a hair, so I guess my chances on nailing the top 7 once again is slimmer.

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED LAST YEAR?

How To Train Your Dragon won by default against a slew of opening movies. The movie earned a respectable $15.3M in its fifth week, and actually has a pretty weird record. It’s only the second movie even to win in its first weekend, drop to second in the next 3 weeks, and claim the top spot once again.

Jennifer Lopez’ The Back-Up Plan and The Losers opened with disappointing numbers. They both earned $12.2M and $9.4M respectively, leaving How To Train Your Dragon open for the win.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 77 (up 77 spots from last week) with an 82.558% Accuracy (up 4.216%)

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