Box Office Results April 22-24, 2011 [final update]

[updated: more accurate estimates courtesy of box office mojo]

Wow! This one calls for a celebration! For the first time this year, we have a sure winning weekend against the same weekend last year! More good news is that this week’s top 12 earned 121M, 36% more than that of last year! It looks like the year could catch up to the 19% lead that 2010 has after all! And April is the only month to have 2 movies winning consecutive weekends since November of last year

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 1

1.) Rio – Surprise, surprise! It looks like the holdovers (angry birds) defeated the newcomers (fat suits) this week! I think that people are starting to learn that good movies deserve to be at the top while lackluster ones should be sent to the garbage can. But don’t think my predictions are already wrong! It looks like the top 2 movies are gonna end up having a photo-finish!

[updated: well, I prayed, but I guess Madea just can’t steal a win this week]

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $23.5M

Actual Gross: $26.3M

Total Gross: $80.6M


2.) MADEA’S BIG HAPPY FAMILY – I should’ve followed my instincts. History repeats itself one more time as another sequel earns much less than its predecessor. That’s what happens when you disappoint people, and I’m telling you, America’s getting smarter with their movie choices. This one had the best per-theater-average though, and still reached an impressive $20M+. Heck, even Big Momma couldn’t do that!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $35.0M

Actual Gross: $25.1M

Total Gross: $25.1M


3.) WATER FOR ELEPHANTS – Over-performing this week is this Pattinson-Witherspoon project. My favorite critic said that the two didn’t have any chemistry, and that Christoph Waltz stole their thunder. Still, I find this film intriguing, but what’s more intriguing was how strange this whole weekend was. This week is actually only one of the few that generates more money on Friday than Saturday. Maybe people just wanted to rest on Black Saturday. I don’t know, or maybe they just wanted to wait ’till Jesus rises from the dead this Easter. Hey, I’m a Catholic too!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $18.6M

Actual Gross: $16.8M

Total Gross: $16.8M


4.) Hop – Also doing well this Easter (and I expected it to) is a movie about the Easter Bunny. No surprise there, but I just want to know how come everytime I try to not be bullish, a movie over-performs and vice versa? Damn!

[update: Hop becomes the 3rd movie to reach $100M this year]

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $9.1M

Actual Gross: $12.2M

Total Gross: $100.2M


5.) Scream 4 – Aah! Aah! Aah! Aah! There, I screamed four times. Are you happy now, Scream 4? I guess not, because you crashed and burned this week by 63%! Ouch! No more sequels for you my friend!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $9.0M

Actual Gross: $7.0M

Total Gross: $31.0M


6.) AFRICAN CATS – This movie earned just about the same as Oceans and Earth did their opening weekend. I guess people thought Lion King, Finding Nemo and A Bug’s Life were equally good movies.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $6.4M

Actual Gross: $6.0M

Total Gross: $6.0M


7.) Soul Surfer – No hard feeling for you, Rio, I still get 5 out of 7 this week, and that’s slightly better than my average. Still, what are the odds I get another lucky break and get those 7 right once again when the final results come out within the next 2 days?

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $4.8M

Actual Gross: $5.4M

Total Gross: $28.5M

Total Score: 5 out of 7, with a variance of $2.94285714287143M per prediction.

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