Box Office Predictions for April 29-May 1, 2011

Three new movies this weekend, which means they will probably mess up my predictions for the week. Hey, don’t blame me if I only get 1 right, okay?

This could be the second straight weekend that 2011 beats last year’s tally, so the pressure is on for a newcomer who is expected to kick off the summer season in Hollywood.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 157 (down 48 spots from last week) with 82.913% Accuracy (up 4.452%)

1.) FAST FIVE – $75.6M – Yep, you read that correctly. Ever since Universal called the original cast back for the fourth installment, this franchise has become nothing but pure gold for the studio, domestically and internationally. They say that they want the franchise to transform into a full-blown heist movie, so they tried to add some elements here and there for the fifth movie. Adding Dwayne Johnson will also allow this one to beat Fast and Furious 4’s $70M.

2.) Rio – $17.2M – Going strong and hoping to attract more families is Rio, who will pretty much sit at the top of 2011’s tally for a while until Fast Five and Thor begins to rake in the big dollars. Expect this film to crack $100M this weekend.

3.) Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family – $11.0M – Madea films never hold well in its second weekend. Maybe the length of the titles have something to do with it? I mean, you won’t even bother recommending this to your friends because saying the title alone would be tiring.

4.) Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil – $10.5M – A pretty crappy title for a pretty crappy movie. I’m unsure with my prediction for this one. Something tells me that this will underperform because nobody wants to watch a bad-looking movie in 3D (a la Cats and Dogs 2: Revenge of Kitty Galore) and also because the first movie opened 6 years ago. On the other hand, the first one opened at $12M and it ended up earning a respectable $51M. So I guess shaving the second movie by $1.5M compared to the first one is bad enough.

5.) Water For Elephants – $9.5M – I bet Pattinson fanatics already watched this in its first weekend. However, I think the older crowd will want to catch this in its second week. Word-of-mouth has been pretty much okay for this one so I don’t think it will crash and burn like Pattinson’s last romantic drama, Remember Me.

6.) Prom – $9.0M – Who doesn’t wanna revisit their high school prom? Me! This is an effortlessly-titled movie distributed by Disney, which means we’re against the teens here. I never predict teen-powered flicks correctly, but I can tell you that this won’t beat Fast Five. PROMISE.

7.) Hop – $6.5M – After sharing his eggs last week, Hop will take its steepest drop so far since it rose 12% on Easter. I don’t think this will bleed more than 50% though.

So…WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED LAST YEAR?


It was a really front-loaded weekend last year as the remake Nightmare on Elm Street took the top spot with $32.9M. How To Train Your Dragon and Date Night held well with $10.6M and $7.5M respectively, while Brendan Fraser’s kiddie comedy Furry Vengeance garnered little interest and tanked with a $6.6M 5th place finish.

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