Box Office Predictions for May 6-8, 2011

Early predictions here! I have an exam on Friday so I won’t be able to focus if I do this tomorrow. My derby rank last week was 301, down 144 spots from the game before that. That’s because I totally got my predictions for Hoodwinked, Prom, Hop and Dylan Dog wrong. All of them had lower-than-expected grosses this week. Nobody was interested with Hop after the Easter weekend as it dropped 78%, Dylan Dog premiered at a lowly 17th place, crushing Brandon Routh’s dignity.

Nevertheless, I should stay happy this week as it looks like this week may yet again have a big weekend this week (though not as big as last year’s, when IRON MAN 2 opened with a colossal $128M). Looks like Hollywood got its mojo back!

THREE new movies are premiering this week. One is a much-hyped tie-in to the Avengers, one is a counter-programming rom-com, while the last one is catered for a certain demographic. Out of the three, I think only one will find much success.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 301 (down 144 spots from last week) with 54.914% Accuracy (down 27.999%)

1.) THOR – $75.0M – I had my doubts, but I think this one is too big of a movie to be overshadowed by bad buzz. The trailers looked cheesy, and Thor’s costume had mixed reactions. However, when I watched it, I can’t believe I even thought this movie was bad. It had everything you wanted from a comic book/action/summer blockbuster. Plus, it ain’t cheesy! Sure it won’t earn as much as comic book buddies Iron Man, Spider-Man, or X-Men, but it will still have lots’o love and outstanding word-of-mouth. (It also currently has a surprisingly high 91% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes, about 10% higher than the two Iron-Man movies)

2.) Fast Five – $33.0M – It’s actually a smart move that Universal pushed this movie one week earlier, because now they won’t have to worry about Thor stealing the thunder this week. How does a movie with an $86M opening weekend FALL to second place in its second weekend? Either it’s front-loaded or the movie’s just plain bad. Good thing it’s the former and not the latter for this movie.

3.) SOMETHING BORROWED – $13.0M – Looking to have some counter-programming going on is this film, which involves a lot of actors like Kate Hudson, John Krasinski and Ginnifer Goodwin, but I don’t think they’re a strong enough cast for moviegoers to consider this as their first option this week. I mean, there’s also romance and comedy in Thor, why would they watch this one? Fortunately, the peeps who don’t like 3D or who have been dying for this type of movie will allow theaters to sell 1.5M tickets this week.

4.) Rio – $9.6M – This movie is slowly climbing up the 2011 charts, trailing Hop by a mere hundred thousand. Another movie will prevent this movie from beating Rango for the top spot next week though. Don’t know which one it is, here’s a clue: FF.

5.) SOMETHING BORROWED – $7.4M – I don’t have high hopes for this movie. It’s targeted to African-american mothers celebrating mother’s day. Not a lot of movies are made for these people, so if ever it’ll crack double-digits I won’t be surprised at all.

6.) Water For Elephants – $5.9M – Isn’t it amazing how Cristoph Waltz can act as a villain in every movie but people end up loving him more than the actual protagonists? I’m guilty of it. He’s just an actor you hate to love.

7.) Madea’s Big Happy Family – $4.2M – Oh snap! Madea drops even further this week after crashing 65%+ last week. Could this be the end of the Madea franchise? Or is there enough gas left in Madea’s tank for a final farewell?

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED LAST YEAR?

Last year, fanboys (including me) flocked the theaters as they propelled Iron Man 2 to the top with $128.1M in its first three days. The movie earned more than the combined grosses of all movies from May 7-9. Nightmare on Elm Street bled 70% to $9.1M while How To Train Your Dragon stood still with a $6.7M third place finish in its 7th week of release.

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