Box Office Predictions for May 13-15, 2011

After 2 straight weeks of huge $65+ Million openings, Hollywood takes a little breather with only 2 new movies coming out this weekend. The first one looks like a female version of 2009’s The Hangover, while the other one looks like a rehash of Paul Bettany’s previous characters. I won’t be surprised if the latter bombs at the box-office.

It seems like that 2011’s 21% deficit against last year disappeared all of a sudden. The year now only trails 2010 by 14% ($500M), and after that lackluster summer of last year, I think the year could breakeven by September.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 78 (up 223 spots from last week) with 86.264% Accuracy (up 31.35%)

1.) Thor – $37.0M – Looks like Thor’s going to sit in his mighty throne once again as the fight for number one becomes less competitive this week. It will eventually crack $100M by the end of the week and international grosses currently stand at $189M. So I guess it’s a good sign for the upcoming Avengers movie.

2.) BRIDESMAIDS$20.2M – This looks like Sex and The City meets The Hangover but not in a way that it rips off the two movies. Instead, it borrows the elements that made them successful and because of that I think that this one will earn more than $20M. Not exactly the biggest opening, but given it’s a non-3D, non-blockbuster film, it can be one of them surprise hits of the year.

3.) PRIEST – $15.0M – On the other hand, I don’t know if people will buy the advertising on this 3D effects-laden, bound-to-bomb, 3-time delayed film. I’m not judging the content based on that, but bad buzz and lack of interest makes me feel like there won’t be as many people watching this film as Paul Bettany’s previous “religion-related” movie Legion.

4.) Fast Five – $14.9M – This film’s only $10M away from becoming the highest grossing film of the Fast and the Furious franchise. But now that they’re trying to shift the style of the movie from “street racing” to “action heist”, I predict the grosses for the future movies will decline. One thing’s for sure though, Fast Six is on its way.

5.) Jumping The Broom – $8.4M – Nothing to say for this one. It’s not in my demographic.

6.) Something Borrowed – $6.8M – Anything above 50% will be a disappointing drop for this romantic comedy, and that’s exactly what I expect for this one. Hey, when you get beaten by Jumping the Broom, what else can you expect?

7.) Rio – $5.1M – Rio stays strong even in its 4th week in theaters. Too bad Fast Five already overtook it to become the current #1 film of the year money-wise.


Iron Man 2 tumbles 59.4% in its second week but still holds on to the number 1 spot with $52M. 3 new movies attempted to take the crown but fell short. The closest to beat the Iron-clad superhero was Robin Hood ($36.0M), while Amanda Seyfried and her movie Letters To Juliet, earned a modest $13.5M. Just Wright debuts at 4th place with $8.2M


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