Box Office Results May 13-15 [final update]

Thor holds on to the top spot by default. As expected, the newcomers didn’t even put up a challenge, but they still earned in line with studios’ expectations. Even Priest, which I thought was actually going to bomb, didn’t bomb at all; but it still earned far less than the average 3D action movie.

[update: Rio overtakes Something Borrowed and Jumping The Broom for 5th place, Jumping The Broom maintains its lead over Something Borrowed and I got 2 predictions dead on!]

Early estimates and actual results are courtesy of Deadline and Boxofficemojo.

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 1

1.) Thor – I’m kind of multitasking right now. I’m watching Memoirs Of A Geisha (first time as a “man”) while writing this, so I can’t concentrate that much. Even so, they say left-handed people are good in multitasking, so that explains a lot. Nothing much to talk about here, except that by the end of the week Thor will have become the 6th $100M earner of the year and that it didn’t actually have that much legs. (It eased 48% in its second week, which is normal for a blockbuster, but not great)

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $37.0M

Actual Gross: $34.7M

Total Gross: $119.4M

2.) BRIDESMAIDS – No surprise here. Bridesmaids earns an easy $20M+. It also gained an unprecedented 90% FRESH rating at RottenTomatoes, and not a lot of movies can accomplish that. [update: Looks like it earned $4.7M more than early estimates]

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $20.2M

Actual Gross: $26.2M

Total Gross: $26.2M

3.) Fast Five – Thanks to Priest, I missed another opportunity to nail all 7 spots correctly. Fast Five eased on the brakes a little as it further solidifies its lead atop the highest earning movies of 2011. It should hold on to that spot for another month.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $14.9M

Actual Gross: $20.4M

Total Gross: $169.7M

4.) PRIEST 3D – The only reason I’d even try to watch this movie is because Lily Collins is there. Paul Bettany fooled me once in Legion, but not this time. Especially since it has a dismal 22% Fresh rating at RT.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $15.0M

Actual Gross: $15.0M [nailed it!]

Total Gross: $15.0M

5.) Rio – I’m hoping to extend my streak as Pirates of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides invades the theaters. The only question left to ask is, how high will it go? My guess is that it will earn more than Curse of The Black Pearl and At World’s End, and less than Dead Man’s Chest. Anyone opposing that?

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $5.1M

Actual Gross: $8.3M

Total Gross: $125.2M

6.) Jumping The Broom – I don’t intend on watching this movie. I don’t intend on talking about it either. It’s not my demographic.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $8.4M

Actual Gross: $7.0M

Total Gross: $25.8M

7.) Something Borrowed – Hey, here’s another one that blew my chances in getting 7 for 7! Why can’t you just bleed more? I mean, the movie even fared worse than Priest, having a very awful 15% Fresh rating.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $6.8M

Actual Gross: $6.8M [nailed it!]

Total Gross: $25.7M

Total Score: 2 out of 7, with a variance of $2.62857M per prediction.


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