Box Office Results May 20-22, 2011 {final update}

[holy cow update: Priest holds at 5th, Rio at 6th, Jumping the Broom at 7th, I NAILED ALL 7! WOOHOO!!!]

As I expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides falls short in becoming the first movie of the year to earn more than $100M in its first weekend. I saw that coming, so good thing I wasn’t bullish with my prediction. I also got the second and third position correctly.

[update: Midnight In Paris had the 15th best per-theater-average ever, earning $579K in just 6 theaters]

Here are the early estimates courtesy of deadline. Final results will be taken from boxofficemojo.

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 4 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 2

1.) PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES – Thanks to an easy weekend I successfully predict the number one movie correctly for the fourth week in a row. Next week will be a little tougher as The Hangover II and Kung Fu Panda 2 invade the theaters; and I’m pretty sure Pirates will have a steep drop next week. Sigh, sequels.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $100.0M

Actual Gross: $90.2M

Total Gross: $90.2M

2.) Bridesmaids – I toldja it would stay at #2, didn’t I? It followed the trend of the first Hangover film, falling below 20%. Although, it earned significantly lower than that male-oriented movie.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $18.0M

Actual Gross: $20.9M

Total Gross: $59.3M

3.) Thor – It fell behind Bridesmaids during the weekdays so I guess it should also trail behind in the weekend. Thor had a pretty big drop thanks to that new blockbuster film at the number one spot.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $17.4M

Actual Gross: $15.5M

Total Gross: $145.4M

4.) Fast Five – I’m 4 of 4 and I want more! Fast Five has stabilized a bit and will surely be the first film in the franchise to hit $200M domestically. Good job.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $12.0M

Actual Gross: $10.6M

Total Gross: $186.2M


6.) Rio – Thank you very much for not overtaking Priest this week!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $5.3M

Actual Gross: $4.7M

Total Gross: $131.6M


5.) Priest – I told you it would crash and burn, right? But I didn’t expect it to really CRASH and BURN. Friday grosses fell a staggering 75% from its opening day. No one wanted to watch this one again!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $6.6M

Actual Gross: $4.6M

Total Gross: $23.6M

[updated]
7.) Jumping The Broom – This movie overtook Something Borrowed. Thank you, now I’m 7 for 7!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $3.5M

Actual Gross: $3.7M

Total Gross: $31.3M


Total Score: 7 out of 7, with a variance of $2.6857M per prediction

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