Box Office Predictions for May 27-30, 2011 (Memorial Day Weekend)

It’s Memorial Day weekend this week! 2 BIG comedies will debut and both of them are sequels which means that we’ll have a HUGE box-office weekend. The expected grosses of the top three movies will probably be twice as much as last year’s, when Shrek 4 stayed at #1 and Prince of Persia and Sex And The City 2 disappointed with $30M+ openings.

I’m not a good guesser when it comes to 4-day weekends, but this week’s worth a shot.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 131 (down 37 spots from last week) with 86.264% Accuracy (up 2.067%)

1.) KUNG FU PANDA 2 – $89.5M – This could be the first weekend since 2004 that two movies might debut by more than $80M in the same weekend; well, for the 4-day weekend at least. That’s a big feat, especially when those two movies are in the same genre. I’m guessing the young families will flock this animated film (originally named Kung Fu Panda: Kaboom of Doom), while those people who prefer a raunchier comedy will stick to the other film. Which is….

2.) THE HANGOVER PART II – $78.5M – While I certainly think that this sequel will earn much more than its predecessor (The first film earned $45M+ in its opening and it went on to finish with a collosal $275M gross), I don’t think it will benefit opening together with Kung Fu Panda 2. And frankly, I was more excited to catch this one than the movie above. However, critics say that this one’s lacking the ingenuity and brilliance of the first one. Too bad.

3.) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $46.5M – This will bleed and fade in its second weekend, but I think it’s still quite capable to drop less than the third film. At World’s End fell 61% four years ago, so a 57% drop for this one should be all right.

4.) Bridesmaids – $16.3M – Being heralded as the female version of The Hangover, Bridesmaids could either crash or remain unfazed in its third weekend. I say some people will try this one out of interest after they watch The Hangover II.

5.) Thor – $10.2M – Its opening weekend looks miniscule compared to the big openings of sequels in the past two weeks. But don’t fret. Thor will have his revenge when he returns to the big screen next year. Avengers, assemble!

6.) Fast Five – $7.3M – Even if this movie always ends one spot lower than Thor, it still has a $40M advantage which means it will still probably defeat Thor in a long run. But it looks like Fast Five could still end up below $200M at least for another two weeks.

7.) Rio – $3.3 – Hanging strong at seventh place is Rio, who has clung on this spot for quite a while now. Even if it loses some 3D screens this week, I don’t think Priest can sneak in and steal this position.

How about you guys? Was I a little bullish with that Kung Fu Panda prediction? You think that the Hangover Part II will surprise for 1st place? Comment below!


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