Box Office Results May 27-30, 2011 [final update] {biggest memorial weekend ever!}

{2nd update includes the estimated 3-day weekend of the top 7}

Looks like I had a major miscalculation this week. The Hangover Part II grossed almost twice my prediction and Kung Fu Panda 2 didn’t even manage to match the gross of its predecessor. Looks like 3D has taken its toll among consumers, who won’t be fooled again by a useless gimmick which just adds a 25% surcharge to your tickets.

This week was the biggest memorial weekend ever, way above last week’s dismal batch of movies. Looks like 2011’s box office drought is over!

Here are the early estimates courtesy of deadline. Final results will be taken from boxofficemojo. Final results on TUESDAY

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 2

1.) THE HANGOVER PART II – Not even dismal reviews can stop droves of people from flocking to the theaters to watch this in its opening day. It had the third highest opening ever for a Thursday ($31M) and will hold on to first place at least until Monday. However, I bet word-of-mouth should start affecting this movie by Sunday and it would be impossible for this film to earn 4x its opening weekend gross in the long run. {3-day weekend – $86.5M, almost twice more than its predecessor’s opening weekend}

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $78.5M

Actual Gross: $103.4M

Total Gross: $137.0M

2.) KUNG FU PANDA 2 3D – The first film earned $65M in its first three days and went on to finish with $215M. This one won’t even hit $50M in three days and will be lucky if it earns $75M when the memorial day weekend is over. I guess Dreamworks will be reconsidering those reported 4 Kung Fu Panda sequels anytime soon. {3-day weekend – $48.0M, well below the first movie’s $65M. Dreamworks didn’t expect this to happen, even if they knew that kids had school this week.}

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $89.5M

Actual Gross: $60.8M

Total Gross: $68.0M

3.) Pirates of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – It held better than expected in its second weekend, but that 50%+ drop is still big. It also crossed $500M worldwide. {3-day weekend – $39.3M, a 56% drop, the lowest among all sequels but it’s still the lowest grossing out of the three}

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $46.5M

Actual Gross: $50.0M

Total Gross: $166.5M

4.) Bridesmaids – This one is still going strong, even though The Hangover II is breaking records. I guess the two movies can co-exist after all! {3-day weekend – $16.3M, wow!}

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $16.3M

Actual Gross: $20.7M

Total Gross: $90.0M

5.) Thor – Like I said, I’m not good in predicting 4-day weekends, so expect this week to be my worst predicted week ever. I mean, the variance must be above $11M per movie. Let’s try to be optimistic though. {3-day weekend: $9.3M}

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $10.2M

Actual Gross: $12.0M

Total Gross: $161.3M

6.) Fast Five – It’s nearing $200M domestically and has reached $500M internationally. Yes, there will be a F6st and Fast 7. {3-day weekend – $5.8M}

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $7.3M

Actual Gross: $7.9M

Total Gross: $198.4M


7.) Midnight in Paris – Weird, I picked Rio to land at 7th place, and it ended at 9th. 1st estimates say that Priest took the 7th spot, but now it’s the one which is down to 10th! This movie was the per-theater-average champion last week, and now since it expanded to 58 screens, it still had an amazing PTA of $33K to finish 7th above $1.5M. Meanwhile, the winner at the Cannes film festival, Malick’s The Tree of Life starring Brad Pitt, took the PTA crown this week, opening with $350K with only 4 screens. {3-day weekend: $1.9M}

Predicted Outcome: Unranked

Actual Gross: $2.5M

Total Gross: $3.5M

TOTAL SCORE: 4 out of 7, with a variance of $9.2571428M per prediction (an all time worst).


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