Box Office Results June 3-5, 2011 (X-Men Weekend) [Final Results]

I’m a little disappointed that fewer people actually watched X-Men: First Class than X-Men Origins: Wolverine. While I liked both movies, I really just hoped that more people would come and enjoy the brilliance of Matthew Vaughn’s prequel and help prove to studios that 3D has taken its toll among the average moviegoer.

Nevertheless, the Top 12 will beat last year’s record by 20%, assuming X-Men isn’t too frontloaded. And for the third time, I nailed all 7 spots correctly.

Here are the early estimates courtesy of deadline. Final results will be taken from boxofficemojo. Final results on MONDAY

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 1 Week in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 3

1.) X-MEN: FIRST CLASS – There’s still a reasonable explanation as to why this is the lowest-earning film of the franchise, regardless of inflation. It could be because of the lack of star power. While James McAvoy is part of the cast, guys like Michael Fassbender, Kevin Bacon and Jennifer Lawrence aren’t exactly household names even if they’re good actors. Wolverine, Cyclops and Storm are MIA here too. Oh, and of course, you have to count fatigue. Too bad though, I gave it a high grade in my review here.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $75.0M

Actual Gross: $55.1M

Total Gross: $55.1M

2.) The Hangover Part II – Suffers a 63% drop in its second weekend. But why would Warner Bros. complain when it’s nearing $200M and will pass Fast Five and Pirates 4 for first place this year?

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $39.8M

Actual Gross: $31.4M

Total Gross: $185.8M

3.) Kung Fu Panda 2 – Apparently I was wrong. I thought that people just weren’t eager to see this one so fast. I predicted a small drop this weekend, but moviegoers say otherwise as it drops a little more (50%) than the average animated film does. If someone’s to blame, it would be 3D.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $30.5M

Actual Gross: $23.9M

Total Gross: $100.0M

4.) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – I overestimated the top 3 movies, I should be happy that a movie actually earned more than I expected this week.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $18.9M

Actual Gross: $18.0M

Total Gross: $190.2M

5.) Bridesmaids – This movie had the smallest drop among nationwide releases for the third straight weekend. Now I’m gonna have to watch this. No more ignoring. P.S., It passed $100M! Now that’s what I call “sleeper” hit of the year!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $12.0M

Actual Gross: $12.0M [nailed it!]

Total Gross: $107.2M

6.) Thor – And now we move on to the rest of the pack. It lost a lot of theaters this week, that could be the reason why…

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $5.7M

Actual Gross: $4.2M

Total Gross: $169.1M

7.) Fast Five – $3.8M – It’s officially the first movie of the year to cross $200M. It’s been at the top 7 for 8 weeks. Not bad for a fifth installment, eh? Well, excluding Harry Potter.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $3.8M

Actual Gross: $3.2M

Total Gross: $202.0M

TOTAL SCORE: 7 out of 7 (nailed it!), with a variance of $5.414285M per prediction (an all time worst).

Let’s talk about Super 8 next week.

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