Box Office Results June 10-12, 2011 [final]

[update: NBA Finals’ game 6 hurts male-oriented movies on Sunday. Super 8, X-Men and The Hangover down from studio estimates. Judy Moody moves to 7th place.]

Looks like I overestimated Super 8 this weekend, as it earns $10M less than my prediction. But I found out that it’s because I was too bullish with my expectations. As for X-Men, it had the smallest drop among the franchise, but it’s still the lowest-grossing movie after 10 days of release.

Here are the early estimates courtesy of deadline. Final results will be taken from boxofficemojo. Final results on MONDAY

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 3

1.) SUPER 8 – The are two contrasting facts to consider regarding its opening weekend. First, this is a J.J. Abrams/Steven Speilberg movie, so expectations are high. However, there aren’t a lot of noteworthy actors to generate attention (unless you count Dakota’s sister, Elle Fanning). So I guess a $35M opening is respectable. The question is, will good word-of-mouth propel this movie higher in the long run?

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $45.2M

Actual Gross: $35.4M

Total Gross: $35.4M

2.) X-Men: First Class – Technically, Paramount should be happy that this one dropped less than 50% in its second weekend. Past movies dropped as much as 70%. But still, that opening gross will partly hurt its chances in getting another sequel. Too bad, I’m kinda liking where they’re going with this franchise.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $25.5M

Actual Gross: $24.1M

Total Gross: $98.0M

3.) The Hangover Part II – Crossed the $200M mark in just 16 days. So where will the next movie take us? India? Africa? Greenland? Outer Space?

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $15.2M

Actual Gross: $17.7M

Total Gross: $215.7M

4.) Kung Fu Panda 2 – Well look at that, people were actually eager to see this in its third weekend! It only dropped by about 30%, which I was expecting last week. I guess the guys ran out of movies to watch. Unfortunately, moviegoers were a week too late. This film won’t make $200M. P.S. It could climb to 3rd place by Monday.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $13.2M

Actual Gross: $16.5M

Total Gross: $126.8M

5.) Pirates of the Caribbean 4 – It’s kinda tiring to write the whole movie title. Now in its 4th week, Pirates has earned $209M. But the Hangover out grossed it already.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $8.8M

Actual Gross: $10.9M

Total Gross: $208.8M

6.) Bridesmaids – Hey, I’m 6 for 6! Still, I won’t celebrate until I get the final results. I don’t want to celebrate early and end up losing. Right, Miami Heat?

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $8.8M

Actual Gross: $10.0M

Total Gross: $123.8M

7.) Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer – Midnight in Paris let me down as Judy Moody prevents me from nailing all 7 correctly. I told you I shouldn’t celebrate yet.

Predicted Outcome: UNRANKED

Actual Gross: $6.0M

Total Gross: $6.0M

TOTAL SCORE: 6 out of 7 (nailed it…almost!), with a variance of $3.7571M per prediction.


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