[update: NBA Finals’ game 6 hurts male-oriented movies on Sunday. Super 8, X-Men and The Hangover down from studio estimates. Judy Moody moves to 7th place.]
Looks like I overestimated Super 8 this weekend, as it earns $10M less than my prediction. But I found out that it’s because I was too bullish with my expectations. As for X-Men, it had the smallest drop among the franchise, but it’s still the lowest-grossing movie after 10 days of release.
Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 3
1.) SUPER 8 – The are two contrasting facts to consider regarding its opening weekend. First, this is a J.J. Abrams/Steven Speilberg movie, so expectations are high. However, there aren’t a lot of noteworthy actors to generate attention (unless you count Dakota’s sister, Elle Fanning). So I guess a $35M opening is respectable. The question is, will good word-of-mouth propel this movie higher in the long run?
Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $45.2M
Actual Gross: $35.4M
Total Gross: $35.4M
2.) X-Men: First Class – Technically, Paramount should be happy that this one dropped less than 50% in its second weekend. Past movies dropped as much as 70%. But still, that opening gross will partly hurt its chances in getting another sequel. Too bad, I’m kinda liking where they’re going with this franchise.
Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $25.5M
Actual Gross: $24.1M
Total Gross: $98.0M
3.) The Hangover Part II – Crossed the $200M mark in just 16 days. So where will the next movie take us? India? Africa? Greenland? Outer Space?
Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $15.2M
Actual Gross: $17.7M
Total Gross: $215.7M
4.) Kung Fu Panda 2 – Well look at that, people were actually eager to see this in its third weekend! It only dropped by about 30%, which I was expecting last week. I guess the guys ran out of movies to watch. Unfortunately, moviegoers were a week too late. This film won’t make $200M. P.S. It could climb to 3rd place by Monday.
Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $13.2M
Actual Gross: $16.5M
Total Gross: $126.8M
5.) Pirates of the Caribbean 4 – It’s kinda tiring to write the whole movie title. Now in its 4th week, Pirates has earned $209M. But the Hangover out grossed it already.
Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $8.8M
Actual Gross: $10.9M
Total Gross: $208.8M
6.) Bridesmaids – Hey, I’m 6 for 6! Still, I won’t celebrate until I get the final results. I don’t want to celebrate early and end up losing. Right, Miami Heat?
Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $8.8M
Actual Gross: $10.0M
Total Gross: $123.8M
7.) Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer – Midnight in Paris let me down as Judy Moody prevents me from nailing all 7 correctly. I told you I shouldn’t celebrate yet.
Predicted Outcome: UNRANKED
Actual Gross: $6.0M
Total Gross: $6.0M
TOTAL SCORE: 6 out of 7 (nailed it…almost!), with a variance of $3.7571M per prediction.