Box Office Results June 17-19, 2011 (final update)

As expected, 3D saved this one from having an underwhelming opening weekend. And considering how risky this movie was, Warner Brothers will accept the results. The Green Lantern didn’t muster enough strength to beat Thor though.

[update: Green Lantern and Mr. Popper’s Penguins suffer huge drops from Friday-to-Saturday grosses. Both movies end up earning millions off from studio estimates]

Here are the early estimates courtesy of deadline. Final results will be taken from boxofficemojo. Final results on MONDAY

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 3

1.) GREEN LANTERN – The critically panned (22% on RottenTomatoes) superhero movie earned $2M more than what I had expected. It was certainly higher than most of the derby players predicted, but I don’t think Warner Bros. will make a sequel for this one unless international grosses are twice as much as its’ US haul.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $50.0M

Actual Gross: $53.1M

Total Gross: $53.1M

2.) Super 8 – I should’ve followed my instincts and put this one above Mr. Popper’s Penguins. Things could still change by Monday, but right now Super 8 has a $500,000 lead.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $20.0M

Actual Gross: $21.4M

Total Gross: $72.8M

3.) MR. POPPER’S PENGUINS – Critics also dissed this movie (43% on RottenTomatoes), but at least it’s better off than Green Lantern. Jim Carrey’s growth in the box office seem to have stopped as his movies from the last few years somewhat fall in between $15M to $25M most of the time.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $19.0M

Actual Gross: $18.4M

Total Gross: $18.4M

4.) X-Men: First Class – Unfortunately, my favorite movie in the X-Men franchise is projected to become the lowest-grossing among the five. There are a few explanations for that, but I’m mostly disappointed with moviegoers since they decided to miss out on the fun.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $12.5M

Actual Gross: $11.9M

Total Gross: $120.0M

5.) The Hangover Part II – While critically acclaimed movies like First Class underperformed, movies like The Hangover Part II end up having overrated opening weekends. One thing’s for sure though, Part III won’t have the same results.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $10.3M

Actual Gross: $10.0M

Total Gross: $232.6M

6.) Kung Fu Panda 2 – I’m running out of ideas as to what I should write about this movie. Any ideas? It won’t matter though. This one will be out of the top 7 in a few days.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $10.8M

Actual Gross: $9.0M

Total Gross: $143.3M

7.) Bridesmaids – It’s been a while since I’ve had more mistakes than correct predictions. Next week, Cars 2 and Bad Teacher will be released, so it’s gonna be tough to figure out whether Cars 2 can pull of a big opening or if it will end up having the same result as Kung Fu Panda. 3D will play a “smaller” role here, and both movies are gonna have to earn as much money as they can within 5 days because they’re gonna be blown apart by Transformers 3 once it comes out on the 29th.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $7.7M

Actual Gross: $7.1M

Total Gross: $136.8M

TOTAL SCORE: 3 out of 7, with a variance of $1.2M per prediction (a personal best).


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