Box Office Predictions for July 29-31, 2011 (Cowboys and Captain America)

Hey! I know I’m super late with my predictions compared to everyone else, but better late than never right? My excuse? Academics. Include basketball practice (even if I suck at basketball) and a little Warcraft III on the side. Nevertheless, I’m still prepared to predict the top 7 movies of the week. Although I couldn’t make it on time to enter the derby. Curse you long exams!

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 202 (up 12 spots from last week) with 83.894% Accuracy (up 2.756%)

1.) COWBOYS AND ALIENS – $45.0M – This would’ve had a much bigger opening hadn’t Robert Downey Jr. left this project. After posting record-breaking openings and back-to-back weekends with the number one movie earning $50M+, Hollywood comes back to earth with Cowboys and Aliens, a sci-fi movie that has the disadvantage of being the last blockbuster film of the summer. That would translate to a $45M opening, not bad, but not noteworthy either.

2.) The First Avenger: Captain America – $35.8M – It’s had better weekday results than Thor so I believe it will have a relatively higher gross in its second weekend compared to the son of Odin. In fact, if Captain America earns about $20M more than Thor, then it would be the second Avenger to cross the $200M mark, next to Iron Man.

 

3.) Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $21.1M – There are three new movies out this weekend, but most people will go to the action spectacles. If you ask me, families would rather see Cap or C&A than blue-skinned Smurfs.

4.) THE SMURFS (IN 3D) $21.0 – It has an uber-talented voice cast, it’s in 3D, and it originated from a hit series, but it will be a disappointment. I’m taking a big risk by being too low with my prediction for this movie. I just can’t find a reason why people would want to check this out.

5.) CRAZY, STUPID LOVE – $19.5M – Horrible Bosses, Zookeeper, Friends With Benefits, Bad Teacher. I think people had enough. Fortunately, it has a high rating on Rottentomatoes, which will help it in its succeeding weeks regardless of how poorly it will perform during the opening.

 

6.) Friends With Benefits – $9.5M – Will earn about $10M less than the movie above. There is a possibility that 5 movies with earn more than $20M this week. If that happens, then 2011 will be one step closer to matching 2010’s box office results.

 

7.) Horrible Bosses – $8.0M – 3 action packed films in the top 3 against 4 comedies in the bottom. Nice one, right?

 

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Box Office Results July 22-24, 2011

And the winner is….CAPTAIN AMERICA! It didn’t turn out to be a tight race as I expected. Harry Potter and the Dealthly Hallows Part 2 suffered a humongous 71% drop this week! But don’t be alarmed, it’s already on track to become the highest grossing movie of the franchise. Captain America on the other hand has overtaken Thor’s $65.7M opening record to have the biggest opening weekend of 2011 for a superhero movie. However, both films are within 100K from each other, so it would be best to wait until final numbers come out.

My seven week-streak ends here.

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 0 Weeks in a Row (yeah baby!)

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 5

1.) THE FIRST AVENGER: CAPTAIN AMERICA – Sorry for being late, WordPress was experiencing lots of errors earlier. Anyway, let’s congratulate Captain America for defeating Thor by a mere hundred thousand. I heard attendance for this one is 9% higher than Thor because less people caught this one in 3D.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $66.0M

Actual Gross: $65.8M

Total Gross: $65.8M

 

2.) Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 – Movies who bleed by more than 60% are usually considered as bad. This one is an exception though. This probably earned $120M less because millions of fans were eager to pay a hefty price to catch it during the opening week. Now that’s what I call an inelastic demand!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $67.6M

Actual Gross: $48.1M

Total Gross: $274.2M

 

3.) FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS – Not even two good actors could lift this movie above $20M. I guess people had enough of this type of story after No Strings Attached premiered last January. Too bad.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $20.0M

Actual Gross: $18.5M

Total Gross: $18.5M

 

4.) Transformers: Dark of the Moon – It’s been declining steadily for the past two weeks now. Now I’m starting to doubt whether or not Harry Potter could actually overtake this one.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $10.2M

Actual Gross: $12.0M

Total Gross: $325.8M

 

5.) Horrible Bosses – I’m having an off-week today because right now I’ve only placed one movie correctly in the top seven. Hopefully the last two can save me.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $10.8M

Actual Gross: $11.7M

Total Gross: $82.4M

 

6.) Zookeeper – Booyah! I’m 2 for 6! While I don’t like to talk about this film, I have to thank it for helping me save my reputation.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $7.7M

Actual Gross: $8.7M

Total Gross: $59.2M

 

7.) Cars 2 – The guys over at ropeofsilicon believe that this film can’t crack $200M, so the best option for Cars 2 is to earn at least $15M more so that it won’t end up becoming the lowest grossing Pixar film of all time.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $4.8M

Actual Gross: $5.7M

Total Gross: $176.4M

 

TOTAL SCORE: 3 out of 7, with a variance of $3.6857M per prediction

 

Box Office Predictions For July 22-24, 2011 (Potter vs. Avenger)

It took a long time for me to make up my mind this week. Everything is up for grabs. As Harry Potter continues to break records (biggest 4-day domestic and international haul), it may end up breaking a bad one as it faces Captain America: The First Avenger this week!

2 years ago, a movie called G-Force pulled an upset by winning the weekend against Half-Blood Prince, denying the boy who lived an extra week at the top spot. The stakes are higher this time around. Will Chris Evans have enough firepower to propel his film to victory against a record-breaking behemoth just like his buddies? Or will it prove inferior to the replayability of the epic’s conclusion? One way or another, it’s going to be a photo finish at the box office!

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 214 (down 110 spots from last week) with 81.138% Accuracy (down 8.593%)

1.) Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $67.6M – It will break a record for the biggest week-to-week drop in box office history, expecting to earn $100M less than its opening weekend. Still, having more than $60M in ticket sales in week two is a rare feat that only few movies have achieved. I’d like to see how Potter fares against another blockbuster movie. It certainly has the “replay factor”, since diehard fans won’t hesitate to watch the finale over and over and over again, and it’s already set to become the highest grossing film of the franchise, regardless of 3D inflation. So I think a perfect way to put the icing on the cake is to let it stay on top for at least another week. Thank you for enchanting us for a decade, Mr. Potter!

2.) CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER – $66.0M – This was supposed to be the highest-grossing superhero movie of the year. However, as summer passed, I realized that there were already signs that this film was losing buzz. First of all, it faces a big disadvantage of being the last comic book adaptation out this summer. Second, people should be tired of the additional 3D effects by now. There’s a high chance that lots of people saved their money for Transformers and Harry Potter, so not everyone can shell out a few extra bucks for this film. The good news? It involves an Avenger, and every one of them so far have earned at least $60M in their respective opening weekends. This will be the first to settle for second place though.

3.) FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS – $20.0M – It could’ve earned much more had it been release last June, when only 8 films battled it out. Unless Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis become a bigger box office draw than I expected, this will end up having mediocre results. It’s also doomed next week, since 3 new movies will be out.

4.) Horrible Bosses – $10.8M – It will have one last push to reach $100M. I like it when people notice good movies like these, it makes me feel like people are doing the right job of keeping the good movies alive in theaters.

5.) Transformers: Dark of The Moon – $10.2M – This will also have one last push to crack $350M, but there is absolutely no chance for this film to match Revenge of the Fallen’s record.

6.) Zookeeper – $7.7M – I could’ve stopped at the top 5. I don’t wanna write anything about Zookeeper anymore.

7.) Cars 2 – $4.8M – 6 films will have photo finishes this week. Harry Potter vs. Captain America, Horrible Bosses vs. Dark of the Moon, and finally, Cars 2 vs. Winnie The Pooh. Just in case Pooh steals the 7th spot from Cars, I’ll announce that my prediction for that movie is $4.6M

Box Office Results July 15-17, 2011

Bloody hell! Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 just keeps breaking records! It now holds the crown for the biggest opening weekend in box office history! It nabbed $92M in it’s opening day alone (including the $43M midnight grosses), and is set to become the highest grossing movie of the 10-year-old franchise. Gosh, it’s so fun to report these numbers!

The only thing we need to do right now is wait and see whether the estimates were actually exaggerated. That $10M lead HP has over The Dark Knight could still disappear!

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 7 Weeks in a Row (yeah baby!)

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 5

1.) HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 – It’s arguably the best film of the series. The 3D was perfectly converted and it looked fantastic on IMAX. I’ll be watching this movie over and over again because on my opinion, this one’s the most re-playable (and the least dull). Still, no matter how high this film could go in it’s opening weekend, it will suffer a BIG drop next week and it’ll be inevitable. Captain America: The First Avenger could even steal the number 1 spot!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $160.0M

Actual Gross: $168.5M

Total Gross: $168.5M

 

2.) Transformers: Dark Of The Moon – This one fell 55% in its third weekend. Usually people consider this as a sub-par result. This week is an exception though.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $20.5M

Actual Gross: $21.2M

Total Gross: $302.8M

 

3.) Horrible Bosses – Oh, I forgot to tell you! Transformers 3 is the first movie to reach $300M this year! Bad news is that it took 7 months before a film actually crossed that line this year. In other relevant news, Horrible Bosses had a very nice 38% drop this week. Not bad for a dark comedy.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $15.1M

Actual Gross: $17.6M

Total Gross: $60.0M

 

4.) Zookeeper – People still don’t listen to critics, do they? Only a 39% drop from last week! Good thing it won’t reach $100M.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $10.2M

Actual Gross: $12.3M

Total Gross: $42.3M

 

5.) Cars 2 – I guess not a lot of people remember Winnie The Pooh these days. It’s under-performance managed to let this 4-week old Pixar flick sneak to 5th place.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $7.8M

Actual Gross: $8.3M

Total Gross: $165.3M

 

6.) Winnie The Pooh – Harry Potter 7 Part 2 earned 20 times more money than Winnie The Pooh this week. Just sayin’

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $11.5M

Actual Gross: $8.0M

Total Gross: $8.0M

 

7.) Bad Teacher – I was a hundred thousand dollars away from nailing this movie.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $5.1M

Actual Gross: $5.2M

Total Gross: $88.0M

 

TOTAL SCORE: 4 out of 7, with a variance of $2.557142857M per prediction

232nd Movie Review: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (in IMAX 3D)

A perfect way to conclude an epic 10-year journey.

{WARNING: SPOILERS AHEAD!}

Now this is how a series should end! After a decade-long adventure, Harry Potter finally killed Lord Voldemort in an epic showdown between good and evil. A deafening silence surrounded the theater for almost two hours, and time was flying so fast. It didn’t take long before the final credits rolled and people began shedding tears of joy, giving the film a big round of applause in the process.

HP7 Part 2 is a rare summer blockbuster which actually prioritizes the story more than the outstanding visual effects. This was my 4th visit to the IMAX theater, but only my 2nd IMAX showing in 3D. Nevertheless, compared to Avatar, the special effects for this one was just as dazzling. I didn’t mind being overcharged because the 3D effects actually made the film even better, which is surprising considering it only underwent post-conversion and wasn’t shot in 3D!

The movie began exactly where part 1 left off, when Harry (Daniel Radcliffe) buried Dobby at the garden of the Shell cottage. Harry Potter visited Lestrange’s (Helena Bonham Carter) vault in Gringott’s, to retrieve one of Voldemort’s (Ralph Fiennes) Horcruxes. They managed to get to Lestrange’s vault and found the Horcrux, Helga Hufflepuff’s Cup. While escaping Harry had a vision about the relic of Rowena Ravenclaw, which showed that another Horcrux is just somewhere inside the Hogwarts Castle.

The three Apparate to Hogsmeade in hopes of sneaking into the school and are helped by Aberforth Dumbledore, Albus’s brother. The trio used a passageway to Hogwarts provided by Aberforth, and arrived at the Room of Requirement where Dumbledore’s (Michael Gambon) Army made a resistance from Snape’s regime. Harry confronted Snape, and Minerva McGonagall (Maggie Smith) intervened and fought Severus (Alan Rickman), who fled instantly. After being dormant in the past few movies, she returned in full force during the time she was most needed. McGonagall and the other Hogwarts staff conjured a barrier to keep the school safe from any attack. Hermione (Emma Watson) and Ron (Rupert Grint) gets back to the Chamber of Secrets, broke Hufflepuff’s Cup. Meanwhile, Harry also found the Ravenclaw Diadem and destroyed it. Voldemort then used the Elder Wand to destroy the Hogwarts barrier but he is positive that the wand is not working well with him, as it will only work with the one who killed it’s former owner, Snape.

Voldemort murders Snape, and soon after Voldemort’s exit the trio approached the dying Severus. Harry used Snape’s tear and gets into Pensieve where he saw that Snape actually cared for Harry since the very beginning. Voldemort then initiated the epic battle at Hogwarts, where Tonks, Lupin, Fred Weasley and Lavender Brown died. He taunted Harry to meet him at Forbidden Forest in exchange of his comrades retreating and keeping his other friends safe. Harry faced Voldemort who strikes him with his Killing Curse, unaware that he possesses a resurrection stone.

Harry woke up inside a sort of a dream and talks with Dumbledore who reveals that Harry is in fact a Horcrux and he’s still tied to the living world through Voldemort. Believing that he is truly dead, Voldemort’s army marched down to the defenseless Hogwarts while Harry was being carried by the tied Hagrid. Voldemort tormented the students as they are now vulnerable. Harry reveals himself to be alive and another battle ensues inside the castle, with Harry and Voldemort facing off yet again. On the other hand, Hermione and Ron tries to kill the last Horcrux, Nagini but failed to do the attempt and when the snake is about to attack them, Neville kills it by decapitating its head off using the Gryffindor sword he found inside the Sorting Hat. With his last Horcrux broken, Voldemort succumbs into Harry’s magic. The film concludes 19 years later, when a new generation of young wizards, including Harry and Ginny’s son, Albus Severus Potter, discover for the first time the magical world of Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, something we wish we could discover all over again. (source: imdb.com).

There was never a dull moment. Although this was probably the darkest film in the series, director David Yates never forgot to include light, funny moments in between the non-stop, fast-paced, action-packed scenes.

I believe this film is the most satisfying and most comprehensible if you didn’t read the book. The action was just superb! It was so mind-blowing that I didn’t even notice the film was more than two hours long. You could also feel the actors’ fondness towards their characters and the whole cast really seemed like one big happy family. Harry and Ginny (Bonnie Wright) were lacking a little chemistry, but I have no complaints with Ron and Hermione. You’ll find out why if you’ve watched the movie.

You can’t help but feel a little nostalgic when the film revisits classic locations like the Gringott’s, Hogsmeade, and even Diagon Alley. Thanks to this final entry, the Harry Potter franchise will forever be certified fresh by critics and will leave everyone satisfied. Kudos to Warner Brothers for setting the bar extremely high for other studios who would want to mimic the same success achieved by the boy who lived (happily ever after).

A true Harry Potter fan will cry when it all ends. I cried too. So believe me when I say that this is the best film of the franchise and also the best film of the year so far. The movies may have ended already, but hey, at least we still have Pottermore. In the meantime, let’s watch the film all over again.

GRADE: A

I agreed with the MAJORITY

Box Office Predictions for July 15-17, 2011 (Harry Potter Weekend!)

Tick… tock… tick… tock…Everyone is hoping that time will go faster as the most anticipated movie of the year will finally be unleashed in what seems to be the biggest nationwide release ever (both domestically and internationally) for a Harry Potter movie. The nationwide phenomenon ends with this one; some people even want to catch it during its final run just to delay the impending conclusion of this franchise.

And of course, epic endings are always accompanied by broken records. That’s why I believe HP 7 Part 2 will give The Dark Knight a run for its money. Potter has already shattered many records even before its release, so I think it will be no sweat for this weekend to crush the same weekend last year.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 104 (up 272 spots from last week) with 89.731% Accuracy (up 27.188%)

1.) HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 – $160.0M  It’s the highest-rated movie of the franchise (97% at RottenTomatoes, blimey!), it’s in 3D, and it’s heavily frontloaded. Yes, it could beat The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record, but only by the smallest of margins. Will it be good enough to keep the fans watching this film over and over again? The re-playability of this film is high, since it’s the last one. 2011 will either be ruled by the Autobots or the Boy who lived. And I feel like it’s going to be the latter who will prevail when the year ends.

2.) Transformers: Dark of The Moon – $20.5M – This film who looked so colossal when it first debuted suddenly became miniscule compared to Harry and the gang. HP will also steal half a million audiences from this film so I guess a steeper drop is expected for this one.

3.) Horrible Bosses – $15.1M – This on the other hand is fortunate enough to be focusing on a different demographic, which will help it from any threat posed by the new releases this week. BTW, When I say new releases, I meant HP and Winnie The Pooh!

4.) Winnie The Pooh – $11.5M – There’s so much hype for the Deathly Hallows that I think most people are not even aware that there’s a brand new Winnie The Pooh film out this week! This movie brings back childhood memories and retains its classic cartoon style and characters. Unfortunately, Disney made a wrong move by pitting it against a behemoth; although it could have legs and end up with a pretty decent run.

5.) Zookeeper – $10.2M – This will not incur the benefits of Horrible Bosses this week. By now I would assume that people who have watched this have already told their friends not to catch this film. But still, more than a million Americans will be fooled this week, and there’s nothing else that we could do.

6.) Cars 2 – $7.8M – A few extra million and this could reach $200M, which will be good news for Pixar, even if it isn’t as much as they previously earn.

7.) Bad Teacher – $5.1M – Rounding out the top 7 is Bad Teacher, a film that I would like to watch but I never had the opportunity (or resources) to see it in theaters.

Box Office Results July 8-10, 2011

TF3 becomes the third movie of 2011 to remain at the top spot for two consecutive weeks! But that’s not the only good news for this movie. It is now the highest-grossing movie of the year after only 10 days of release! It just passed The Hangover Part II this weekend and is likely to stay at the top spot…at least for now. There are still a few people that could eclipse the Autobots’ record, including a guy named Harry Potter.

Oh, and BTW, I nailed all 7 this week!

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 6 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 5

1.) Transformers: Dark of the Moon – Yep, this is the third time a Transformers movie has been at number one in back-to-back weeks, so they’re 3 for 3. Dark of the Moon actually held well this week, only dropping by 51%. That’s a good number, especially when you talk about big blockbusters. The last film to do that was Iron Man (2008).

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $44.5M

Actual Gross: $47.0M

Total Gross: $261.0M

 

2. HORRIBLE BOSSES – See, I told you good marketing can bolster ticket sales! Well, that and good reviews. This film has a 73% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes, so I guess moviegoers finally know the difference between a good and an awful film just by looking at the posters.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $27.0M

Actual Gross: $28.1M

Total Gross: $28.1M

 

3.) ZOOKEEPER – I take back what I wrote just a while ago. Since more than 3 million people still chose to catch this film, I guess Horrible Bosses really is at number 2 because of good marketing!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $22.0M

Actual Gross: $21.0M

Total Gross: $21.0M

 

4.) Cars 2 – Pixar is lucky there aren’t any animated movies out for the next few weeks. This temporary monopoly could even help Cars 2 beat the odds and reach $200M. But I doubt it.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $13.5M

Actual Gross: $15.2M

Total Gross: $148.8M

 

5.) Bad Teacher – Oh yeah! I’m five for five and the biggest difference between my prediction and the actual results so far is only $2.5M. So unless the actual results are far from the estimates, expect my performance this week to be my all-time best. Wow, what a confidence booster!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $7.5M

Actual Gross: $9.0M

Total Gross: $78.7M

 

6.) Larry Crowne – One more week and I’ll finally say goodbye to Larry Crowne.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $6.7M

Actual Gross: $6.3M

Total Gross: $26.5M

 

7.) Super 8 – One more week and I’ll finally say hello to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $5.1M

Actual Gross: $4.8M

Total Gross: $118.0M

 

TOTAL SCORE: 7 out of 7 (BAZINGGA!, with a variance of $1.2142857M per prediction (all-time best baybeh!)