Box Office Prediction for July 1-3, 2011

Hey everyone! I apologize for being WAAAAY too late with my predictions. Real life keeps bugging me nowadays. Nevertheless, I’m still here with my predictions.

We all know Transformers 3 will take the top spot. The question is, will it be the first movie of 2011 to earn $100M for the 3-day weekend?

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 102 (up 3 spots from last week) with 89.261% Accuracy (up 2.98%)

1.) TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON – $100.0M – You can tell I’m playing it a little safe with this prediction. T3 opened with $37M on Wednesday, up from the first movie, but not even close to that $60M opening made by Revenge of the Fallen. I guess at least 1/3 of the American population actually wanted a story rather than watch Autobots crush each other. Take note that this is also heavily marketed with 3D, so attendance must have dropped big time compared to the second film. Hey, maybe Megan Fox really was the only reason why people loved this franchise.

2.) Cars 2 – $37.0M – Two car-themed movies are sitting at the top 2 spots this week, and both could potentially hurt the other. If Transformers ends up stealing Lightning McQueen’s thunder, this could be the lowest grossing Pixar movie in years.

3.) Bad Teacher$18.9M – Bridesmaids held relatively well during its first few weeks. I feel like this one can pull the same feat, but not as much. I’m not sure though. In fact, most of my predictions this week are very risky. More on these later.

4.) LARRY CROWNE – $18.5M – Larry Crowne is at #3 in most people’s lists. I guess older couples are the target here as I can’t find a reason why young couples will choose this one over Transformers.

5.) MONTE CARLO – $11.5M – For some strange reason, I think this will do rather well this week. It’s probably frontloaded by Selena and Leighton fans and it’s the highest-rated movie premiering this week (43% on RT compared to T3’s 37% and Larry Crowne’s 36%). Like I said, I have a lot of risky predictions this week.

6.) Green Lantern – $9.5M – Approximately 1 million Americans will be fooled for the next 3 days.

7.) Super 8 – $7.8M – $137M worldwide and counting. Go J.J. Abrams!


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