Box Office Results for July 1-3, 2011

A historical week at the box office!

Transformers 3 may have failed to reach $100M during the weekend, but it still set an Independence Day record for the biggest opening weekend ever. It’s the best weekend of the year, but it was still down 8% from that colossal $250M record the same weekend last year. On the other hand, Cars 2 suffered the biggest second week drop in Pixar history. Let’s break down the top 7.

Here are the estimates courtesy boxofficemojo. Final results on MONDAY.

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 5 Weeks in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 4

1.) TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON – As expected, Dark of the Moon fell short of its predecessor’s 5-day record of $200M (it’s at $160M right now). But still, it bested Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and now has the biggest opening weekend for the year. And since there’s only minimal competition next week, TF3 will rule the world for at another week.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $100.0M

Actual Gross: $97.5M

Total Gross: $97.5M

2.) Cars 2 – Yowch! Despite the fact that it’s a 4-day weekend, Cars 2 still bled by 60% this week! This may be the first Pixar movie that could fail to reach $200M in years! I guess people preferred transforming cars rather than speedy ones.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $37.0M

Actual Gross: $26.2M

Total Gross: $117.1M

3.) Bad Teacher – I realized I was bullish with most of my predictions this week. Looks like I’m bound to have a bad record today. The only way my reputation could be saved is if I nail the top 7 for the 2nd week in a row.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $18.9M

Actual Gross: $14.5M

Total Gross: $59.8M

4.) LARRY CROWNE – This is the biggest loser of the week. 2 big stars that could propel a film to a $20M opening couldn’t even attract audiences into watching this one over TF3. That’s one bad counter-programming!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $18.5M

Actual Gross: $13.1M

Total Gross: $13.1M

5.) Super 8 – Aww, shucks! Green Lantern faded away while this one performed well against the other movies in the top 7. Too bad, my reputation is gone. Now I’m gonna have to redeem it next week,

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $7.8M

Actual Gross: $7.8M [nailed it!]

Total Gross: $108.3M

6.) MONTE CARLO – See? I told you Selena Gomez could open a movie! Well, I made the right choice by placing this one above Super 8, but I was still way off by about $4M; when you’re talking about the number 5 film, that’s a big deal!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $11.5M

Actual Gross: $7.4M

Total Gross: $7.4M

7.) Green Lantern – Damn. You. Green. Lantern….. Because. of. you. and. Super. 8. I’m. only. 4. for. 7!!!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $9.5M

Actual Gross: $6.5M

Total Gross: $101.9M

TOTAL SCORE: 4 out of 7, with a variance of $4.314285M per prediction.

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