Box Office Predictions For July 22-24, 2011 (Potter vs. Avenger)

It took a long time for me to make up my mind this week. Everything is up for grabs. As Harry Potter continues to break records (biggest 4-day domestic and international haul), it may end up breaking a bad one as it faces Captain America: The First Avenger this week!

2 years ago, a movie called G-Force pulled an upset by winning the weekend against Half-Blood Prince, denying the boy who lived an extra week at the top spot. The stakes are higher this time around. Will Chris Evans have enough firepower to propel his film to victory against a record-breaking behemoth just like his buddies? Or will it prove inferior to the replayability of the epic’s conclusion? One way or another, it’s going to be a photo finish at the box office!

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 214 (down 110 spots from last week) with 81.138% Accuracy (down 8.593%)

1.) Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $67.6M – It will break a record for the biggest week-to-week drop in box office history, expecting to earn $100M less than its opening weekend. Still, having more than $60M in ticket sales in week two is a rare feat that only few movies have achieved. I’d like to see how Potter fares against another blockbuster movie. It certainly has the “replay factor”, since diehard fans won’t hesitate to watch the finale over and over and over again, and it’s already set to become the highest grossing film of the franchise, regardless of 3D inflation. So I think a perfect way to put the icing on the cake is to let it stay on top for at least another week. Thank you for enchanting us for a decade, Mr. Potter!

2.) CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER – $66.0M – This was supposed to be the highest-grossing superhero movie of the year. However, as summer passed, I realized that there were already signs that this film was losing buzz. First of all, it faces a big disadvantage of being the last comic book adaptation out this summer. Second, people should be tired of the additional 3D effects by now. There’s a high chance that lots of people saved their money for Transformers and Harry Potter, so not everyone can shell out a few extra bucks for this film. The good news? It involves an Avenger, and every one of them so far have earned at least $60M in their respective opening weekends. This will be the first to settle for second place though.

3.) FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS – $20.0M – It could’ve earned much more had it been release last June, when only 8 films battled it out. Unless Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis become a bigger box office draw than I expected, this will end up having mediocre results. It’s also doomed next week, since 3 new movies will be out.

4.) Horrible Bosses – $10.8M – It will have one last push to reach $100M. I like it when people notice good movies like these, it makes me feel like people are doing the right job of keeping the good movies alive in theaters.

5.) Transformers: Dark of The Moon – $10.2M – This will also have one last push to crack $350M, but there is absolutely no chance for this film to match Revenge of the Fallen’s record.

6.) Zookeeper – $7.7M – I could’ve stopped at the top 5. I don’t wanna write anything about Zookeeper anymore.

7.) Cars 2 – $4.8M – 6 films will have photo finishes this week. Harry Potter vs. Captain America, Horrible Bosses vs. Dark of the Moon, and finally, Cars 2 vs. Winnie The Pooh. Just in case Pooh steals the 7th spot from Cars, I’ll announce that my prediction for that movie is $4.6M


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