Box Office Predictions for July 29-31, 2011 (Cowboys and Captain America)

Hey! I know I’m super late with my predictions compared to everyone else, but better late than never right? My excuse? Academics. Include basketball practice (even if I suck at basketball) and a little Warcraft III on the side. Nevertheless, I’m still prepared to predict the top 7 movies of the week. Although I couldn’t make it on time to enter the derby. Curse you long exams!

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 202 (up 12 spots from last week) with 83.894% Accuracy (up 2.756%)

1.) COWBOYS AND ALIENS – $45.0M – This would’ve had a much bigger opening hadn’t Robert Downey Jr. left this project. After posting record-breaking openings and back-to-back weekends with the number one movie earning $50M+, Hollywood comes back to earth with Cowboys and Aliens, a sci-fi movie that has the disadvantage of being the last blockbuster film of the summer. That would translate to a $45M opening, not bad, but not noteworthy either.

2.) The First Avenger: Captain America – $35.8M – It’s had better weekday results than Thor so I believe it will have a relatively higher gross in its second weekend compared to the son of Odin. In fact, if Captain America earns about $20M more than Thor, then it would be the second Avenger to cross the $200M mark, next to Iron Man.


3.) Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $21.1M – There are three new movies out this weekend, but most people will go to the action spectacles. If you ask me, families would rather see Cap or C&A than blue-skinned Smurfs.

4.) THE SMURFS (IN 3D) $21.0 – It has an uber-talented voice cast, it’s in 3D, and it originated from a hit series, but it will be a disappointment. I’m taking a big risk by being too low with my prediction for this movie. I just can’t find a reason why people would want to check this out.

5.) CRAZY, STUPID LOVE – $19.5M – Horrible Bosses, Zookeeper, Friends With Benefits, Bad Teacher. I think people had enough. Fortunately, it has a high rating on Rottentomatoes, which will help it in its succeeding weeks regardless of how poorly it will perform during the opening.


6.) Friends With Benefits – $9.5M – Will earn about $10M less than the movie above. There is a possibility that 5 movies with earn more than $20M this week. If that happens, then 2011 will be one step closer to matching 2010’s box office results.


7.) Horrible Bosses – $8.0M – 3 action packed films in the top 3 against 4 comedies in the bottom. Nice one, right?



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