Box Office Results July 29-31 (Final: Cowboys edge out Smurfs)

Whew! Good thing I missed the deadline for the derby or else my record would’ve gone waaaay down. Most people, including me, underestimated The Smurfs’ potential to gather a wide audience, and they retaliated by showing their blue asses in our faces. And while the blue-skinned crew exceeded expectations, the western sci-fi pic Cowboys and Aliens almost tanked this week!

It’s a photo-finish at the box office. We still don’t have a clear winner but needless to say whatever the result is it will be good news for The Smurfs and bad news for Cowboys and Aliens, which has to do well in the following weeks if Universal aims to make up for its $163M budget. Let’s break the top 7 down!

For the record, this was a hard weekend for box office oracles like me. 😦

Number One Movie Predicted Correctly: 1 Week in a Row

Number of Times I Nailed the Top 7: 5

1.) COWBOYS AND ALIENS – We’ll have to wait for a few more hours before we find out who really is the victor this weekend. But I believe this one will edge out The Smurfs because Sony’s estimated gross for Sunday looks a little high. I can’t be too sure though. {update: Cowboys and Aliens wins the weekend by a measly $800K}

Predicted Outcome: Rank 1, $45.0M

Actual Gross: $36.4M

Total Gross: $36.4M

2.) THE SMURFS (IN 3D) – However, Sony has nothing to lose even if it’s at number two. I mean, it earned 50% more than what others expected and regardless of its abysmal 18% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes it still managed to get an “A” Cinemascore compared to Cowboys and Aliens’ “B” (Cinemascore rates movies according to the initial reception of moviegoers in America who views films during its opening day). And to think that I thought that this would be a flop!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 4, $21.0M

Actual Gross: $35.6M

Total Gross: $35.6M


3.) The First Avenger: Captain America
– At a distant third place is Captain America, which bled by 62% this weekend, allowing Thor to overtake it if you compare the two films’ grosses by days in release. It probably won’t recapture the lead as August will have a fair share of blockbusters.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 2, $35.8M

Actual Gross: $25.5M

Total Gross: $117.4M

4.) Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 – As of today the eighth installment of the Potter franchise is now the highest grossing HP movie unadjusted for inflation. It also broke a record for being the fastest movie to reach $1B worldwide. Now that’s epic!

Predicted Outcome: Rank 3, $21.1M

Actual Gross: $21.9M

Total Gross: $318.4M

5.) Crazy, Stupid Love – It’s sad too see a fresh movie earn less than $20M. Next week, a movie called The Change-Up will face a similar situation. Although it looks good and early reviews have been favorable, I have a feeling it’s gonna have a hard time catching the attention of moviegoers with its concept.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 5, $19.5M

Actual Gross: $19.1M

Total Gross: $19.1M

6.) Friends With Benefits – Dropped 50% this weekend. Typical for a romantic comedy, but lackluster compared to other R-rated rom-coms released in the past 6 months.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 6, $9.5M

Actual Gross: $9.3M

Total Gross: $38.2M

7.) Horrible Bosses – This one will reach the $100M mark by next week, becoming the 4th romantic comedy to do so.

Predicted Outcome: Rank 7, $8.0M

Actual Gross: $7.2M

Total Gross: $96.3M

TOTAL SCORE: 4 out of 7, with a variance of $5.1M per prediction (all-time low!)

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