Box Office Predictions for August 1-7, 2011

Finally! The weekdays are over and my mind is finally clear of exams. While I’m not particularly glad with my test results, at least I’m satisfied. Now, with that out of the way, I present to you my predictions for the week!

After three months of non-stop blockbuster releases, The summer box-office euphoria slows down this August with only one movie having a clear shot at reaching $100M. There may be a few surprises here and there, but a sleeper hit won’t be enough to match the weekends of the past few weeks. However, we should expect a good month for movies in general as holdovers will probably aid this month to become the highest grossing August ever.

Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: N/A

1.) RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES – $47.5M – If not for this movie, August 2011 would’ve been a bad month for studios. This movie is a pleasant surprise, as most people (including me) thought this was going to be a bad prequel of the hit franchise which was last shown 10 years ago with Tim Burton‘s direction. Fortunately, critics have said otherwise and gave this movie a favorable 81% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. That’s really high, considering that the only blockbuster that had a higher rating this year was the final Harry Potter movie (that one had a 97% rating)

2.) The Smurfs – $20.4M – The gap between the number 1 and number 2 movie this week should be bigger than what The Smurfs will earn for the weekend. If you take a closer look at the weekday grosses of this film, it has already overtaken Cowboys and Aliens for the top spot.

3.) THE CHANGE-UP – $18.5M – Movies starring Ryan Reynolds usually open above $20M, but new comedies have been premiering in theaters for the fifth straight week so demand will be low this time due to fatigue. Its hackneyed plot won’t help either.

4.) Cowboys and Aliens – $17.5M – This could go even lower depending on how poor word-of-mouth will be. Honestly, I find the concept of this film very cool, but I guess most people who have watched this won’t agree with me anymore.

5.) Captain America: The First Avenger – $12.7M – It suffered a steep 61% drop last week, about 12% more worse than Thor, but weekday ticket sales managed to help the Cap get even with the son of Odin. As of today, Captain America’s 17-day total stands at $127M, less than a million lower than Thor. Who gets to be the biggest superhero movie of the year? We’ll find out within a few weeks.

6.) Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $10.8M – It’s trailing Transformers: Dark of the Moon by $12M. But it’s only a matter of time before we crown this movie the highest grossing movie of the year. Although, it will be the lowest grossing “highest grossing movie of the year” since 2007’s Spider-Man 3. Did you get it?

7.) Crazy, Stupid, Love – $9.8M – Nothing much to talk about here. It’s definitely a unique movie, but I guess demand for Steve Carrell wasn’t that high.


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