Box Office Predictions for Augusy 19-21, 2011 (Conan Vs. Fright Night Vs. Spy Kids)

I’m BACK!!! But only for a short time as I’ll be going far away from home for a field trip this weekend. And next week I’ll be having my hell week (Acads & Org), so I don’t think I’ll have much time to blog for the remainder of August. But rest assured I’m here to give my predictions for the weekend!

If last week was difficult, I guess you could say this weekend will be even harder as four new movies will be released. And much like last week, there will be one who won’t make it to the top 7.

Lez do diz!

Last Last Week’s Box Office Mojo Derby Rank: 73 (up 129 spots) with an 89.671% accuracy (up 5.777%)

1.) The Help – $18.0M – So, which among the three new movies will take the crown on the week where studios usually dump their “excess” releases? My answer is…well, none. The Help surprised us last week with a wonderful $25M opening, a very good premiere since it opened on a Wednesday. Frontloading isn’t a factor anymore. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite. This week I feel like people will be more interested with this film than the new ones, so I’m giving it a miniscule 25% drop, giving it a $100K edge over the number two movie which is…

2.) FRIGHT NIGHT – $17.9M – This remake of the 1985 original will defeat all other new releases this week. My reason is because it’s the least risky among the four. I mean, there have been plenty of Conans which bombed in the past few years, and the last Spy Kids movie dated back to 2005, which means people who enjoyed the franchise might be too old already. And of course, people’s tastes change every now and then. The only reason why Fright Night will not take the top spot is because Final Destination 5, which was also released in 3D last week, has the same target demographic.

3.) CONAN THE BARBARIAN – $17.8M – It looked awful a few months ago, but it may have picked up steam in the past few weeks as the publicity and marketing went to full throttle. Honestly, I was supposed to give this one a $12.5M prediction, so this estimate is based on the average bet of most people. Yep, I ain’t gonna be taking a risk, especially during a week where I could do an 0 for 7 with my predictions.

4.) SPY KIDS 4: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD – $16.5M – Ladies and Gentlemen, introducing Spy Kids 4….in 4D!!! LOL! The extra dimension is actually something called “Aromascope”, where the audience will be given a special card when they watch the film. Instructions will be flashed in the screen telling you to scratch a corresponding part in the card, which will give off a scent similar to what the people in the movie will be smelling during that certain time. Now I don’t know if this gimmick will benefit them, but when I was a kid, I totally enjoyed watching Spy Kids 3D wearing those red-blue 3D glasses. That won’t be enough to put them at #1 though, even with Jessica Alba‘s help.

5.) Rise of The Planet of The Apes – $15.3M – It could still make $175M if people flock it for at least two more weeks. It has already cracked the $100M mark, and we now have about 20 movies making the same feat. Way to go 2011! Now if only you have an Avatar scheduled this December.

6.) The Smurfs – $8.9M – And the number of movies expected to earn $10M this week ends at 5! But Sony doesn’t care about that anymore. Heck, The Smurfs even beat Sony’s new release last week, 30 Minutes or Less, which has already been booted out of the top 7.

7.) Final Destination 5 – $8.7M – I hear this one has the best deaths, but the worst acting. No wonder it’s the least attended among the five. Remember that it’s also in 3D! Tsk x3. I guess this is the end for the franchise!


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