Welcome to the second edition of the Box Office Forecast! This week I’ll tackle three new movies premiering nationwide: Tarsem Singh’s The Immortals, Adam Sandler’s Jack and Jill, and Leonardo DiCaprio’s J. Edgar. While they all cater to different demographics, don’t expect any of them to knock off Puss in Boots this weekend.
Jack and Jill and Immortals could end up winning the weekend, though the swashbuckling, milk-licking feline says otherwise. Puss in Boots will probably retain the crown for the third weekend in a row. After underestimating that film last weekend, there is no way I’m going to doubt it again. It may not hold as well as it did before, but a 30% drop is enough to ensure its victory.
Of course, the weekend would be boring without a few surprises. Adam Sandler returns to the big screen with yet another weird concept. This time he puts on a dress, hoping that having two roles will double his chances of success. I on the other hand, believe that people are getting tired of his movies already. Compared to “Zohan” or “Chuck and Larry”, his recent movies haven’t been getting as much love (excluding Grown Ups). That’s why I had no choice but to water down my prediction to $22.2M. That’s still an “okay” opening, but it’ll be at the lower end of expectations.
Another potential wildcard this week is Singh’s Immortals, a war epic that could either be a hit or a miss. The trailers make the film seem like a 300-type adventure. A few million people could buy into that, but overall interest looks soft. Expect it to earn something above the $20M mark.
Hoping to gain some buzz heading into the Oscar season is DiCaprio’s “J. Edgar”, which features the story of a man who became the face of law enforcement in America for almost 50 years. It’s already being bashed at RottenTomatoes, which means its chances of winning Best Picture are gone. But a lot of people are anticipating DiCaprio’s performance and the character he’s portraying. Although I expect it to land at #5 this week, an $11.2M weekend is still solid.
The rest of the top 7 will include the overhyped Tower Heist and A Very Harold And Kumar 3D Christmas. Both will end up bleeding with a 50%+ drop, while Justin Timberlake’s In Time will perform well enough to take Paranormal Activity 3’s position.
TOP 7 PREDICTIONS
#1 – $23.1M – Puss in Boots
#2 – $22.2M – Jack and Jill
#3 – $20.5M – Immortals
#4 – $12.5M – Tower Heist
#5 – $11.2M – J. Edgar
#6 – $6.0M – A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas
#7 – $4.5M – In Time